The Prediction Markets

Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Florida 82%

Next is Kansas at 73%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Florida
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Kalshi
Georgia
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georgia
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ohio
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$981
Trade this on Kalshi
New Hampshire
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Iowa
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Nevada
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nevada
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Pennsylvania
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vermont
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State, Wisconsin Elections Commission, Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florida
  • Kansas
  • Texas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Republicans win a trifecta in 2026?". Florida leads at 82%. Next is Kansas at 73%. $7K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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