The Prediction Markets

Which states will Trump visit before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$167K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Iowa 99.2%

Next is Michigan at 98.4%. The venues differ most on Maine (Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 11%), a 44-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Iowa
99.2%
Polymarket 99.8%polled, 32s agoKalshi 99%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iowa
Last price
99.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
99.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$987
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 99¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.9¢.

Michigan
98.4%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
97.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mississippi
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
West Virginia
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
West Virginia
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhode Island
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Rhode Island
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oregon
45.5%
Polymarket 41%polled, 32s agoKalshi 50%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

New Mexico
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Utah
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Indiana
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wyoming
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wyoming
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisiana
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Missouri
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Idaho
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Idaho
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Arkansas
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maine
21.9%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 38¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 89¢.

Massachusetts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Massachusetts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
7¢
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
New Hampshire
17%
Polymarket 12%polled, 32s agoKalshi 32%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

Hawaii
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vermont
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 3, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the state, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 3, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi

Live prices for Iowa

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Trump visit before 2027?". Iowa leads at 99.2%. Next is Michigan at 98.4%. $167K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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