The Prediction Markets

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$208K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Michigan 98.3%

Next is Mississippi at 95.3%. The venues differ most on Oregon (Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 18%), a 23-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Michigan
98.3%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 44s agoKalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
97.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 97.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Mississippi
95.3%
Kalshi 94%polled, 44s agoKalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Mexico
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
West Virginia
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
West Virginia
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Utah
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wyoming
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wyoming
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisiana
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Missouri
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
WisconsinArb
30.9%
Polymarket 40%polled, 44s agoKalshi 19%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 21¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Oregon
29.5%
Polymarket 41%polled, 44s agoKalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

Washington
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Idaho
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Idaho
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Arkansas
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rhode Island
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhode Island
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Massachusetts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Massachusetts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Maine
14.5%
Polymarket 25%polled, 44s agoKalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

New HampshireArb
13.7%
Polymarket 10%polled, 44s agoKalshi 32%polled, 44s agoKalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Hawaii
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vermont
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Wisconsin on Kalshi at 21¢, sell on Polymarket at 38¢ (1700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 3, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the state, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 3, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michigan
  • Mississippi
  • Minnesota

Live prices for Michigan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?". Michigan leads at 98.3%. Next is Mississippi at 95.3%. $208K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump visits the listed US state between market creation and November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets