The Prediction Markets

Which states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$1.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Michigan 98.2%

Next is Mississippi at 96.1%. The venues differ most on Wisconsin (Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 18%), a 21-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Michigan
98.2%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 97¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Mississippi
96.1%
Polymarket 95.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Minnesota
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Utah
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
Wyoming
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wyoming
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
48.1%
Polymarket 38%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indiana
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indiana
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Louisiana
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket
Missouri
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missouri
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 33 more outcomes
Arkansas
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Polymarket
Colorado
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
Massachusetts
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Massachusetts
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Rhode Island
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rhode Island
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
WisconsinArb
29.8%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

New Mexico
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
West Virginia
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
West Virginia
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
New HampshireArb
25.3%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 34¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Pennsylvania
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Idaho
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Idaho
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oregon
21.2%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $392 (3.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$392 (3.92x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$573
Trade this on Polymarket
Saudi Arabia
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Germany
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Portugal
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portugal
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Hawaii
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Polymarket
Vermont
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $543 (5.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vermont
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$543 (5.43x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Venezuela
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Italy
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Syria
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Syria
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Korea
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Korea
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oman
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oman
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
India
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
India
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ukraine
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mexico
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Belarus
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belarus
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pakistan
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pakistan
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Canada
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taiwan
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lebanon
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lebanon
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy New Hampshire on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 34¢ (2600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official government sources of the state, official representatives or offices of Donald Trump, The New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michigan
  • Mississippi
  • Minnesota

Live prices for Michigan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?". Michigan leads at 98.2%. Next is Mississippi at 96.1%. $1.1M has traded across 43 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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