The Prediction Markets

Which U.S. restaurant will rank highest in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Atelier Crenn 57%

Next is Penny at 16.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Atelier Crenn 57%Penny 16.1%Albi 7.4%Aska 4.7%Atomix 3.3%13 others 11.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Atelier Crenn
57%
Kalshi 85%(57% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atelier Crenn
Last price
85%
Fair, margin removed
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Kalshi
Penny
16.1%
Kalshi 24%(16.1% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Penny
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Albi
7.4%
Kalshi 11%(7.4% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Albi
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Kalshi
Aska
4.7%
Kalshi 7%(4.7% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aska
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Atomix
3.3%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atomix
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Smyth
3.3%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smyth
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
César
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
César
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Chubby Fish
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chubby Fish
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Dakar NOLA
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dakar NOLA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Emeril's
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emeril's
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Jungsik
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jungsik
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Kabawa
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kabawa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalaya
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kalaya
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Le Bernardin
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Le Bernardin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Le Veau d'Or
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Le Veau d'Or
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Moon Rabbit
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moon Rabbit
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Saison
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saison
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
SingleThread
0.6%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SingleThread
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The 50

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Atelier Crenn
  • Penny
  • Albi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which U.S. restaurant will rank highest in 2026?". Atelier Crenn leads at 57%. Next is Penny at 16.1%. $1K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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