The Prediction Markets

Which video games will release this year?

Ends in about 70 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$282K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 99%

Next is Phantom Blade Zero at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phantom Blade Zero
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Phantom Blade Zero
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$957
Trade this on Kalshi
Grand Theft Auto VI
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grand Theft Auto VI
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Duskbloods
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Duskbloods
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Final Fantasy VII Remake #3
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Final Fantasy VII Remake #3
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
ARK 2
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ARK 2
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haunted Chocolatier
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haunted Chocolatier
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Light No Fire
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Light No Fire
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Half-Life 3
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Half-Life 3
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iron Man
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Man
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Squadron 42
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Squadron 42
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Elder Scrolls 6
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Elder Scrolls 6
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Super Mario Galaxy 3
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kingdom Hearts 4
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kingdom Hearts 4
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Steam

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4
  • Phantom Blade Zero
  • Grand Theft Auto VI

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which video games will release this year?". Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 leads at 99%. Next is Phantom Blade Zero at 99%. $282K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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