The Prediction Markets

Which world leaders will leave office in 2026?

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$3.8M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Luxon 46%

Next is Benjamin Netanyahu at 37%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Christopher Luxon
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Luxon
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benjamin Netanyahu
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$575K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sébastien Lecornu
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Sánchez
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Sánchez
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammed bin Salman
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed bin Salman
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Kalshi
Edi Rama
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Edi Rama
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Miguel Díaz-Canel
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$750K
Trade this on Kalshi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delcy Rodriguez
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delcy Rodriguez
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmanuel Macron
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmanuel Macron
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Friedrich Merz
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Friedrich Merz
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodrigo Paz Pereira
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodrigo Paz Pereira
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cyril Ramaphosa
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cyril Ramaphosa
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Noboa
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Noboa
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mette Frederiksen
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mette Frederiksen
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ramzan Kadyrov
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ramzan Kadyrov
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Félix Tshisekedi
5.7%
Kalshi 5.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Félix Tshisekedi
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denis Sassou Nguesso
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Sassou Nguesso
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Jong Un
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jens-Frederik Nielsen
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jens-Frederik Nielsen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee Jae Myung
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Jae Myung
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narendra Modi
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narendra Modi
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladimir Putin
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$787K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Carney
4.1%
Kalshi 4.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Giorgia Meloni
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ahmad al-Sharaa
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ahmad al-Sharaa
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nayib Bukele
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nayib Bukele
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Claudia Sheinbaum
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claudia Sheinbaum
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Kalshi
Xi Jinping
2.4%
Kalshi 2.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$683K
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Milei
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frederik X
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frederik X
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanae Takaichi
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanae Takaichi
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Irfaan Ali
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Irfaan Ali
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: office or organization where person holds office, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Luxon
  • Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Sébastien Lecornu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which world leaders will leave office in 2026?". Christopher Luxon leads at 46%. Next is Benjamin Netanyahu at 37%. $3.8M has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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