The Prediction Markets

Who visited Epstein's Island?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$1.9M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bill Gates
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Gates
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$138K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Spacey
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Spacey
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Deepak Chopra
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Deepak Chopra
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Bannon
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
Woody Allen
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Woody Allen
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Harvey Weinstein
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harvey Weinstein
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jay-Z
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jay-Z
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$588K
Trade this on Polymarket
Noam Chomsky
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noam Chomsky
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steven Tisch
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Tisch
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Jackson
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$164K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Peter Attia
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Attia
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Clinton
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$296K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bill Cosby
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Cosby
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$161K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hillary Clinton
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Rubio
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bill Gates
  • Kevin Spacey
  • Deepak Chopra

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who visited Epstein's Island?". Bill Gates last traded at 1.3%. Next is Kevin Spacey at 1.3%. $1.9M has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place the listed individual on the island. Public confirmation from the listed individual that they visited Little St. James will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If any release of Epstein-related files is carried out by the United States federal government within 48 hours of this market's resolution time, this market will remain open for 48 hours after the resolution time to allow for evidence of visits to Little St. James to be investigated. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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