The Prediction Markets

Who will announce a new tour this year?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$131K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Adele 83%

Next is Drake at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Adele
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adele
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Scott
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$783
Trade this on Kalshi
Beyoncé
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki Minaj
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Madonna
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Madonna
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
5¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Eminem
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eminem
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Kalshi
Doja Cat
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doja Cat
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Coldplay
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coldplay
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Bad Bunny
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dua Lipa
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dua Lipa
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Weeknd
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lady Gaga
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Bieber
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frank Ocean
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frank Ocean
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rihanna
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
SZA
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
SZA
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pitchfork, Billboard, Variety

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adele
  • Drake
  • Travis Scott

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will announce a new tour this year?". Adele leads at 83%. Next is Drake at 75%. $131K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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