The Prediction Markets

Who will AOC endorse?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$40K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Claire Valdez 90%

Next is Darializa Avila Chevalier at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Claire Valdez
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claire Valdez
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Darializa Avila Chevalier
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Darializa Avila Chevalier
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rashida Tlaib
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rashida Tlaib
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donavan McKinney
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donavan McKinney
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Ilhan Omar
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilhan Omar
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Connie Chan
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Connie Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Osborn
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Osborn
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Claire Valdez
  • Darializa Avila Chevalier
  • Rashida Tlaib

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will AOC endorse?". Claire Valdez leads at 90%. Next is Darializa Avila Chevalier at 87%. $40K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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