The Prediction Markets

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tim Pool 57%

Next is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 27%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tim Pool
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Pool
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Bongino
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Bongino
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benny Johnson
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Johnson
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Shapiro
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shapiro
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Walsh
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Walsh
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Candace Owens
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tim Pool
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  • Dan Bongino

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?". Tim Pool leads at 57%. Next is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 27%. $62K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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