The Prediction Markets

Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$124K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lamine Yamal 98.3%

Next is Harry Kane at 97.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Lamine Yamal
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Harry Kane
97.6%
Polymarket 97.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
97.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
96.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rodri
96.7%
Polymarket 96.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
96.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
96.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ousmane Dembélé
93.1%
Polymarket 93.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.3¢
Sell Yes
92.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kylian Mbappé
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zinedine Zidane
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zinedine Zidane
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Beckham
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Beckham
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Owen
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Owen
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vinícius Júnior
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinícius Júnior
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Kaka
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kaka
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cristiano Ronaldo
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergio Ramos
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Ramos
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavi Hernandez
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavi Hernandez
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lamine Yamal
  • Harry Kane
  • Rodri

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?". Lamine Yamal leads at 98.3%. Next is Harry Kane at 97.6%. $124K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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