The Prediction Markets

Who will Barack Obama rally with?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$24K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jon Ossoff 97%

Next is Sherrod Brown at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sherrod Brown
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sherrod Brown
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Talarico
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Turek
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Turek
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Troy Jackson
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Troy Jackson
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Hamilton
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Hamilton
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jon Ossoff
  • Sherrod Brown
  • James Talarico

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will Barack Obama rally with?". Jon Ossoff leads at 97%. Next is Sherrod Brown at 96%. $24K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets