The Prediction Markets

Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$51K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Yashar 72%

Next is Together at 64%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Yashar
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Together
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yisrael Beiteinu
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Reservists–New Economic Party
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–New Economic Party
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Likud
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Democrats
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amcha Yisrael
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Foundations of Israel
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foundations of Israel
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shas
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$692
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Otzma Yehudit
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
United Torah Judaism
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zehut
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zehut
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Economic Party
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Economic Party
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ra’am
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ra’am
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unity
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unity
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Kalshi
Zionist Home–The Reservists
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zionist Home–The Reservists
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Noam
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noam
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hadash–Ta’al
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hadash–Ta’al
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Balad
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balad
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue and White
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the government of Israel, Politico

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yashar
  • Together
  • Yisrael Beiteinu

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?". Yashar leads at 72%. Next is Together at 64%. $51K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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