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What the markets expect
People's Party 84.5%
Next is Vox at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
People's Party84.5%84.5%80¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, just now89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)People's Party84.5%Kalshi 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
People's Party
84.5%
84.5%
80¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, just now
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
People's Party
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- People's Party
- Last price
- 84.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Vox75%75%73¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, just now79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Vox75%Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Vox
75%
75%
73¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, just now
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Vox
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vox
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $2K
PSOE14%14%10¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, just now18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)PSOE14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
PSOE
14%
14%
10¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, just now
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
PSOE
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- PSOE
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
Frente Amplio9%9%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Frente Amplio9%Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Frente Amplio
9%
9%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Frente Amplio
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Frente Amplio
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $2K
Podemos8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Podemos8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Podemos
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Podemos
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Podemos
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
United Left8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)United Left8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
United Left
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
United Left
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- United Left
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Comuns7%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Comuns7%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Comuns
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Comuns
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Comuns
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Más Madrid7%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, just now11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Más Madrid7%Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Más Madrid
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, just now
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Más Madrid
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Más Madrid
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
EH Bildu4.5%4.5%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)EH Bildu4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
EH Bildu
4.5%
4.5%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
EH Bildu
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- EH Bildu
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Republican Left of Catalonia4.5%4.5%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Republican Left of Catalonia4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Republican Left of Catalonia
4.5%
4.5%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Republican Left of Catalonia
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Republican Left of Catalonia
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Basque Nationalist Party3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Basque Nationalist Party3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Basque Nationalist Party
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Basque Nationalist Party
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Basque Nationalist Party
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Junts per Catalunya3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Junts per Catalunya3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Junts per Catalunya
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Junts per Catalunya
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Junts per Catalunya
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the government of Spain, Politico
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- People's Party
- Vox
- PSOE
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be a part of the next government of Spain?". People's Party leads at 84.5%. Next is Vox at 75%. $4K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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