The Prediction Markets

Who will be a part of the next government of Sweden?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$40K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Swedish Social Democratic Party 77%

Next is Green Party at 71%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Swedish Social Democratic Party
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Swedish Social Democratic Party
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Green Party
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green Party
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Centre Party
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Centre Party
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Left Party
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Left Party
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liberals
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberals
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Democrats
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Democrats
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moderate Party
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moderate Party
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sweden Democrats
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sweden Democrats
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Government Offices of Sweden, Politico

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Swedish Social Democratic Party
  • Green Party
  • Centre Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be a part of the next government of Sweden?". Swedish Social Democratic Party leads at 77%. Next is Green Party at 71%. $40K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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