The Prediction Markets

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ilhan Omar 31%

Next is John Brennan at 21%. The venues differ most on Lee Jun-seok (Polymarket 21.1%, Kalshi 7.9%), a 13-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ilhan Omar
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilhan Omar
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Brennan
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 21%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Brennan
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Brennan
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Mahmoud KhalilArb
14.9%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mahmoud Khalil
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mahmoud Khalil
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Lee Jun-seok
11.3%
Polymarket 21.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7.9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Jun-seok
Last price
21.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Jun-seok
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.9¢.

James Comey
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Comey
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
James ClapperArb
8.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Clapper
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Clapper
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9.1¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

Susan Rice
8.7%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susan Rice
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Rice
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Candace Owens
8.5%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Candace Owens
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.9¢.

Lee Jae Myung
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Jae Myung
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon JohnsonArb
7.8%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Johnson
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Johnson
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6.7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Show 16 more outcomes
Anthony FauciArb
7.7%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Fauci
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$199K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Fauci
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$196K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Lisa CookArb
7.5%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Cook
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Cook
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Letitia JamesArb
6.2%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Letitia James
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Letitia James
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$163K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6.4¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Tom HomanArb
6.2%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5.6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.9¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Loretta Lynch
6%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7.9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Loretta Lynch
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Loretta Lynch
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu
5.4%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.3¢.

Adam SchiffArb
5.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Schiff
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Schiff
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 210 bps before fees.

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
4.7%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.6¢.

Hillary ClintonArb
4.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$220K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.4¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

John KerryArb
4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Kerry
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Kerry
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Gavin Newsom
3.9%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.5¢.

Kash Patel
2.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.5¢.

Joe Biden
2.5%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.

Pam Bondi
2.3%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pam Bondi
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pam Bondi
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.7¢.

Bill ClintonArb
2.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.5¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Barack Obama
1.9%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$261K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Adam Schiff on Polymarket at 3.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 6¢ (210 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CNBC, law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred, The New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ilhan Omar
  • John Brennan
  • Mahmoud Khalil

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ilhan Omar for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be arrested before 2027?". Ilhan Omar leads at 31%. Next is John Brennan at 21%. $1.9M has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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