The Prediction Markets

Who will be British Columbia's Premier after the election?

Closes
Oct 24, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$233K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Lorne Doerkson 86.3%

Next is David Eby at 10.9%. The venues differ most on David Eby (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 13%), a 2.5-point gap.

Lorne Doerkson 86.3%David Eby 10.9%Brenda Bailey 1%Niki Sharma 0.9%Dallas Brodie 0.3%2 others 0.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lorne DoerksonArb
86.3%
Polymarket 88.5%(87.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoKalshi 87%(82.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lorne Doerkson
Last price
88.5%
Fair, margin removed
87.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lorne Doerkson
Last price
87%
Fair, margin removed
82.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 87¢ and selling on Polymarket at 88¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

David Eby
10.9%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 13%(12.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Eby
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Eby
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Brenda Bailey
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brenda Bailey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Niki Sharma
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Niki Sharma
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Dallas Brodie
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Brodie
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas Brodie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Emily Lowan
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Lowan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Emily Lowan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

John Rustad
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Rustad
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Rustad
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Peter Milobar
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Milobar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Lorne Doerkson on Kalshi at 87¢, sell on Polymarket at 88¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Office of the Premier of British Columbia, Lieutenant Governor of British Columbia
Show full rule comparison
  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lorne Doerkson
  • David Eby
  • Brenda Bailey

Live prices for Lorne Doerkson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be British Columbia's Premier after the election?". Lorne Doerkson leads at 86.3%. Next is David Eby at 10.9%. $233K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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