The Prediction Markets

Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice?

Closes
Jan 1, 2035, in 100 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Glen Powell 26%

Next is Miles Teller at 24%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Glen Powell
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glen Powell
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miles Teller
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Hedlund
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Hedlund
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Kitsch
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Kitsch
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Gyllenhaal
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Gyllenhaal
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Oscar Isaac
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Isaac
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Hardy
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Hardy
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Madden
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Madden
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Gosling
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Glen Powell
  • Miles Teller
  • Garrett Hedlund

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice?". Glen Powell leads at 26%. Next is Miles Teller at 24%. $19K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2035.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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