The Prediction Markets

Who will be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$74K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jodie Comer 26%

Next is Oscar Isaac at 23%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jodie Comer
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jodie Comer
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oscar Isaac
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Isaac
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Léa Seydoux
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Léa Seydoux
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Toni Collette
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toni Collette
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Colman
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Deepika Padukone
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deepika Padukone
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barry Keoghan
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barry Keoghan
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Dev Patel
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dev Patel
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Driver
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Kalshi
Emma Corrin
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emma Corrin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Florence Pugh
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florence Pugh
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$442
Trade this on Kalshi
Marion Cotillard
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Cotillard
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rooney Mara
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rooney Mara
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Strong
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Rachel Weisz
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel Weisz
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Mescal
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Mescal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Elordi
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Elordi
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Riz Ahmed
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Isabelle Huppert
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Isabelle Huppert
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Phoebe Waller-Bridge
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sarah Snook
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Snook
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Kalshi
Cate Blanchett
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cate Blanchett
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Hollywood Reporter, The New York Times, the Associated Press

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jodie Comer
  • Oscar Isaac
  • Léa Seydoux

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?". Jodie Comer leads at 26%. Next is Oscar Isaac at 23%. $74K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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