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Trading ended on Jul 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Bon Iver18%18%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Bon Iver18%Kalshi 18%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Bon Iver
18%
18%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Bon Iver
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bon Iver
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $802
Taylor Swift14%14%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Taylor Swift14%Kalshi 14%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Taylor Swift
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Taylor Swift
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Swift
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $973
Holly Humberstone13%13%12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Holly Humberstone13%Kalshi 13%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Holly Humberstone
13%
13%
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Holly Humberstone
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Holly Humberstone
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $20
Olivia Rodrigo11%11%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Olivia Rodrigo11%Kalshi 11%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Olivia Rodrigo
11%
11%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Olivia Rodrigo
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Olivia Rodrigo
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $824
Noah Kahan9%9%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Noah Kahan9%Kalshi 9%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Noah Kahan
9%
9%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Noah Kahan
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Kahan
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Rachel Chinouriri8%8%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Rachel Chinouriri8%Kalshi 8%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Rachel Chinouriri
8%
8%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Rachel Chinouriri
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rachel Chinouriri
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Maisie Peters7%7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Maisie Peters7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Maisie Peters
7%
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Maisie Peters
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maisie Peters
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $44
Phoebe Bridgers7%7%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Phoebe Bridgers7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Phoebe Bridgers
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Phoebe Bridgers
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Phoebe Bridgers
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $14
Troye Sivan7%7%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Troye Sivan7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Troye Sivan
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Troye Sivan
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Troye Sivan
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $24
Conan Gray4%4%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Conan Gray4%Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Conan Gray
4%
4%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Conan Gray
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Conan Gray
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $40
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
FINNEAS4%4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)FINNEAS4%Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
FINNEAS
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
FINNEAS
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- FINNEAS
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $105
Sabrina Carpenter4%4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Sabrina Carpenter4%Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Sabrina Carpenter
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Sabrina Carpenter
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sabrina Carpenter
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $516
Harry Styles3%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Harry Styles3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Harry Styles
3%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Harry Styles
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Harry Styles
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $822
Lorde3%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Lorde3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lorde
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Lorde
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lorde
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
The Japanese House3%3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)The Japanese House3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
The Japanese House
3%
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
The Japanese House
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Japanese House
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $502
Billie Eilish2%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Billie Eilish2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Billie Eilish
2%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Billie Eilish
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billie Eilish
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $329
Laufey2%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Laufey2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Laufey
2%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Laufey
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Laufey
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $22
Selena Gomez1.5%1.5%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Selena Gomez1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Selena Gomez
1.5%
1.5%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Selena Gomez
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Selena Gomez
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Clairo1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Clairo1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Clairo
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Clairo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Clairo
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Hozier1%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3017 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Hozier1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Hozier
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3017 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Hozier
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3017 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hozier
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 125 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $502
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Bon Iver
- Taylor Swift
- Holly Humberstone
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Who will be featured on 'Daughter from Hell'?". Bon Iver last traded at 18%. Next is Taylor Swift at 14%. $13K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 18, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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