The Prediction Markets

Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?

Closes
Nov 30, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$99K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mike Johnson 34.2%

Next is Jim Jordan at 33.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Mike Johnson 34.2%Jim Jordan 33.2%Steve Scalise 9.1%Hakeem Jeffries 6%Tom Emmer 5%11 others 12.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mike Johnson
34.2%
Kalshi 34%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Johnson
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jim Jordan
33.2%
Kalshi 33%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jim Jordan
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Scalise
9.1%
Kalshi 9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Scalise
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hakeem Jeffries
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Emmer
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Emmer
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
August Pfluger
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
August Pfluger
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Hern
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Hern
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Hudson
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Hudson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jay Obernolte
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jay Obernolte
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Joe Neguse
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Neguse
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Katherine Clark
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katherine Clark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa McClain
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa McClain
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Lawler
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Lawler
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Aguilar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Aguilar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ted Lieu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Lieu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: House Democratic Caucus, House Republican Conference

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mike Johnson
  • Jim Jordan
  • Steve Scalise

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress?". Mike Johnson leads at 34.2%. Next is Jim Jordan at 33.2%. $99K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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