The Prediction Markets

Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Closes
Oct 28, 2030, in 49 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Avigdor Lieberman 21.4%

Next is Naftali Bennett at 17.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Avigdor Lieberman 21.4%Naftali Bennett 17.9%Israel Katz 14.3%Gadi Eisenkot 9.8%Ofer Winter 9.8%5 others 26.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Avigdor Lieberman
21.4%
Kalshi 24%(21.4% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
21.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$787
Trade this on Kalshi
Naftali Bennett
17.9%
Kalshi 20%(17.9% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel Katz
14.3%
Kalshi 16%(14.3% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
9.8%
Kalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Ofer Winter
9.8%
Kalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Golan
9.8%
Kalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Yoav Gallant
9.8%
Kalshi 11%(9.8% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yoav Gallant
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Itamar Ben-Gvir
4.5%
Kalshi 5%(4.5% fair)polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Itamar Ben-Gvir
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Benny Gantz
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Times of Israel

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Avigdor Lieberman
  • Naftali Bennett
  • Israel Katz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?". Avigdor Lieberman leads at 21.4%. Next is Naftali Bennett at 17.9%. $5K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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