The Prediction Markets

Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$299K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No Next Minister by Feb 28 38.5%

Next is Yoav Ben-Tzur at 17.5%. The venues differ most on Aryeh Deri (Polymarket 9.9%, Kalshi 1%), a 8.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Next Minister by Feb 28
38.5%
Polymarket 38.2%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 39%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 38.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $261 (2.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
38.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.3¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$261 (2.61x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoav Ben-Tzur
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoav Ben-Tzur
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali BennettArb
13.4%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 15%polled, 58s agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.3¢
Sell Yes
16.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$578 (5.78x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16.3¢ nets 1030 bps before fees.

Michael Malchieli
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Malchieli
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avigdor LiebermanArb
10.9%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 13.8%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 58s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.8¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$481 (4.81x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
13.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
13.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20.1¢ nets 810 bps before fees.

Yaron ZelekhaArb
10.1%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 58s agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.7¢ nets 270 bps before fees.

Bezalel SmotrichArb
8.1%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 7.7%polled, 58s agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Ofer Winter
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$847 (8.47x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hili Tropper
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
Shaul MeridorArb
5.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 58s agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Show 28 more outcomes
Yariv Levin
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yariv Levin
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
4.6%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Ayelet Shaked
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayelet Shaked
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Polymarket
Itamar Ben Gvir
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Gadi Eizenkot
3.4%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Moshe Arbel
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Arbel
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Aryeh Deri
3.2%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aryeh Deri
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$524 (5.24x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Aryeh Deri
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Meirav Cohen
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meirav Cohen
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Keren Terner Eyal
3.1%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 58s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keren Terner Eyal
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Keren Terner Eyal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Yair Lapid
2.5%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Orit Farkash-Hacohen
2.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Miri Regev
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miri Regev
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Polymarket
Oded Forer
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oded Forer
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Nir Barkat
1.9%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Eli Cohen
1.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 2.8%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Yair Golan
1.5%
Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Yoram Cohen
1.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Polymarket
Benjamin Netanyahu
1.3%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Elazar Stern
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moshe Feiglin
1.2%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 58s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Chili Tropper
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naama Lazimi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naama Lazimi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amir Ohana
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Hili Tropper
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$896
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoaz Hendel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoaz Hendel
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Benny Gantz
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matan Kahana
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Naftali Bennett on Kalshi at 6¢, sell on Polymarket at 16.3¢ (1030 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Yoav Ben-Tzur
  • Naftali Bennett

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Next Minister by Feb 28 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?". No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 38.5%. Next is Yoav Ben-Tzur at 17.5%. $299K has traded across 38 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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