The Prediction Markets

Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$360K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No Next Minister by Feb 28 37.5%

Next is Naftali Bennett at 12.3%. The venues differ most on Gideon Sa'ar (Polymarket 3.4%, Kalshi 12.5%), a 9.1-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Next Minister by Feb 28
37.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 37.6%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.5¢
Sell Yes
36.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$260 (2.60x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali BennettArb
12.3%
Polymarket 9%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 19.3%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 15%polled, 57s agoKalshi 6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
19.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18.5¢ nets 650 bps before fees.

Yair LapidArb
12.1%
Polymarket 18%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 1.9%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 26%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 1620 bps before fees.

Avigdor LiebermanArb
11.3%
Polymarket 5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 20.6%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 13.7%polled, 57s agoKalshi 6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
20.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20.1¢ nets 1010 bps before fees.

Yaron Zelekha
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gideon Sa'arArb
8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 57s agoKalshi 12.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gideon Sa’ar
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gideon Sa'ar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 650 bps before fees.

Bezalel Smotrich
6.6%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Itamar Ben Gvir
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Ofer Winter
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shaul Meridor
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Israel Katz
3.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 57s agoKalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Gadi Eizenkot
3.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron Dermer
3.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoKalshi 5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron Dermer
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron Dermer
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Nir Barkat
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Einat Wilf
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Einat Wilf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moshe Feiglin
1.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yossi Cohen
1.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 1.9%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$996
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Eli Cohen
1.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 2.8%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Elazar Stern
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chili Tropper
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amir Ohana
0.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Yair Golan
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 1%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Yossi Cohen
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yossi Cohen
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yossi Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Benjamin Netanyahu
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Benny Gantz
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Hili Tropper
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$896
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoaz Hendel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoaz Hendel
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
Matan Kahana
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yair Lapid on Polymarket at 2.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 19¢ (1620 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Naftali Bennett
  • Yair Lapid

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Next Minister by Feb 28 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?". No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 37.5%. Next is Naftali Bennett at 12.3%. $360K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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