What are the odds of No Next Minister by Feb 28 in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

No Next Minister by Feb 28 is currently priced at 38.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yoav Ben-Tzur in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Yoav Ben-Tzur is currently priced at 17.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Naftali Bennett in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Naftali Bennett is currently priced at 13% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Michael Malchieli in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Michael Malchieli is currently priced at 12.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yaron Zelekha in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Yaron Zelekha is currently priced at 10.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Avigdor Lieberman in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Avigdor Lieberman is currently priced at 9.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Hili Tropper in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Hili Tropper is currently priced at 7.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Bezalel Smotrich in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Bezalel Smotrich is currently priced at 6.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Itamar Ben Gvir in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Itamar Ben Gvir is currently priced at 6.4% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Ofer Winter in Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election??

Ofer Winter is currently priced at 6.3% in prediction markets.

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Closes: Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded: $264K
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

No Next Minister by Feb 28 38.1%

Next is Yoav Ben-Tzur at 17.5%. The venues differ most on Yoav Ben-Tzur (Polymarket 21%, Kalshi 7%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

No Next Minister by Feb 28

38.1%

38.5%

31¢ bid, 46¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

38.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $260 (2.60x)

No Next Minister by Feb 28

38.1%

Polymarket 37.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $260 (2.60x)

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 37.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 38.5¢
Sell Yes: 36.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $260 (2.60x)
Volume: $52K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 38.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 40¢
Sell Yes: 37¢
$100 on Yes pays: $250 (2.50x)
Volume: $33K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 38.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 46¢
Sell Yes: 31¢
$100 on Yes pays: $217 (2.17x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Yoav Ben-TzurArb

17.5%

21%

20¢ bid, 22¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

5¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, just now

10¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Yoav Ben-TzurArb

17.5%

Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoav Ben-Tzur
Last price: 21%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 22¢
Sell Yes: 20¢
$100 on Yes pays: $455 (4.55x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yoav Ben-Tzur
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $718

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Naftali BennettArb

13%

15%

14¢ bid, 16¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, just now

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Naftali BennettArb

13%

Polymarket 19.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Naftali Bennett
Last price: 19.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 20¢
Sell Yes: 18.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $500 (5.00x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Naftali Bennett
Last price: 15%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 16¢
Sell Yes: 14¢
$100 on Yes pays: $625 (6.25x)
Volume: $12K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Naftali Bennett
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18.5¢ nets 1750 bps before fees.

Michael Malchieli

12.9%

15.1%

2.3¢ bid, 27.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

11%

8¢ bid, 16¢ ask

polled, just now

16¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Michael Malchieli

12.9%

Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Polymarket

Contract: Michael Malchieli
Last price: 15.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 27.8¢
Sell Yes: 2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $360 (3.60x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Michael Malchieli
Last price: 11%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 16¢
Sell Yes: 8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $625 (6.25x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Yaron Zelekha

10.5%

9.8¢ bid, 11.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

11.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $901 (9.01x)

Yaron Zelekha

10.5%

Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yaron Zelekha
Last price: 10.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11.1¢
Sell Yes: 9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $901 (9.01x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Polymarket

Avigdor LiebermanArb

9.1%

1.1%

0.1¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Avigdor LiebermanArb

9.1%

Polymarket 20.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 20.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 21¢
Sell Yes: 20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $476 (4.76x)
Volume: $17K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 13.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 14.1¢
Sell Yes: 13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $709 (7.09x)
Volume: $12K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 1.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $153

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20.1¢ nets 1210 bps before fees.

Hili Tropper

Polymarket: “Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)”

7.1%

2.1¢ bid, 12¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

12¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $833 (8.33x)

Hili Tropper

7.1%

Polymarket 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)

Polymarket

Contract: Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)
Last price: 7.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 12¢
Sell Yes: 2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $833 (8.33x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Bezalel Smotrich

6.6%

7.6%

1.6¢ bid, 13.5¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)

Bezalel Smotrich

6.6%

Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 4.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.5¢
Sell Yes: 3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,538 (15.4x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 7.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 13.5¢
Sell Yes: 1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $741 (7.41x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Itamar Ben Gvir

6.4%

2.9¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

9.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Itamar Ben Gvir

6.4%

Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price: 6.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $930

Trade this on Polymarket

Ofer Winter

6.3%

5¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Ofer Winter

6.3%

Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ofer Winter
Last price: 6.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.6¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,316 (13.2x)
Volume: $9K

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 37 more outcomes

Ofir Katz

Not listed

1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, just now

7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Ofir Katz

Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Kalshi

Contract: Ofir Katz
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $500

Trade this on Kalshi

Israel Katz

4.2%

4¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Israel Katz

4.2%

Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.6¢
Sell Yes: 3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,515 (15.2x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,266 (12.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Shaul Meridor

4.1%

1.4¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Shaul Meridor

4.1%

Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Shaul Meridor
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,471 (14.7x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Keren Terner Eyal

4.1%

5.7%

0.6¢ bid, 10.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, just now

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Keren Terner Eyal

4.1%

Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Keren Terner Eyal
Last price: 5.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 10.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $935 (9.35x)
Volume: $183

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Keren Terner Eyal
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Aryeh Deri

3.8%

9.3%

0.4¢ bid, 18.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 7¢ ask

polled, just now

7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Aryeh Deri

3.8%

Polymarket 9.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Aryeh Deri
Last price: 9.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 18.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $549 (5.49x)
Volume: $349

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Aryeh Deri
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Gadi Eizenkot

3.6%

0.3%

0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $20,000 (200x)

Gadi Eizenkot

3.6%

Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)

Polymarket

Contract: Gadi Eizenkot
Last price: 4.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $947

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Gadi Eizenkot
Last price: 0.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.5¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $20,000 (200x)
Volume: $345

Trade this on Polymarket

Yariv Levin

3.6%

5.1%

0.3¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Yariv Levin

3.6%

Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yariv Levin
Last price: 5.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $170

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yariv Levin
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

7.5%

1¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, just now

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $612

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price: 7.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $247

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Yair Lapid

2.4%

2.5%

0.3¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)

Yair Lapid

2.4%

Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Lapid
Last price: 1.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.8¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,571 (35.7x)
Volume: $502

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Lapid
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,128 (21.3x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Yitzhak GoldknopfArb

Polymarket: “Yair Golan”, Polymarket: “Yair Golan”, Polymarket: “Yair Golan”, Kalshi: “Yair Golan”

2.2%

3.4%

0.3¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

4¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, just now

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Yitzhak GoldknopfArb

2.2%

Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,556 (55.6x)
Volume: $836

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $205

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,563 (15.6x)
Volume: $104

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $3

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Miri Regev

2.2%

2.4%

1¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

3.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Miri Regev

2.2%

Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Miri Regev
Last price: 2.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.8¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,632 (26.3x)
Volume: $908

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Miri Regev
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Nir Barkat

2.1%

0.6¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

3.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)

Nir Barkat

2.1%

Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nir Barkat
Last price: 2.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.5¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,857 (28.6x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Chili Tropper

Not listed

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, just now

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Chili Tropper

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Kalshi

Contract: Chili Tropper
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

David Amsalem

Not listed

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

David Amsalem

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: David Amsalem
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Gideon Sa'ar

Not listed

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Gideon Sa'ar

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Gideon Sa'ar
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Haim Biton

Not listed

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, just now

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Haim Biton

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Haim Biton
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Miki Zohar

Not listed

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Miki Zohar

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Miki Zohar
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Yinon Azulay

Not listed

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

4¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Yinon Azulay

Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Yinon Azulay
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $338

Trade this on Kalshi

Oded Forer

0.3¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, just now

3.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Oded Forer

Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Oded Forer
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,703 (27.0x)
Volume: $98

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Oded Forer
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Yoram Cohen

1.8%

0.5%

0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, just now

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Yoram Cohen

1.8%

Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 1.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.8¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,571 (35.7x)
Volume: $611

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $78

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Ayelet Shaked

1.8%

4.1%

0.4¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Ayelet Shaked

1.8%

Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ayelet Shaked
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,299 (13.0x)
Volume: $629

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ayelet Shaked
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Moshe Feiglin

1.8%

2.5%

0.1¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Moshe Feiglin

1.8%

Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Polymarket

Contract: Moshe Feiglin
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $16,667 (167x)
Volume: $724

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Moshe Feiglin
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,041 (20.4x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Moshe Arbel

1.6%

1¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

Moshe Arbel

1.6%

Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Moshe Arbel
Last price: 1.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.1¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,762 (47.6x)
Volume: $929

Trade this on Polymarket

Meirav Cohen

1.5%

3.2%

0.3¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Meirav Cohen

1.5%

Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Meirav Cohen
Last price: 3.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $98

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Meirav Cohen
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Eli Cohen

1.4%

0.5%

0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Eli Cohen

1.4%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $607

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 2.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.6¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,174 (21.7x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $141

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Elazar Stern

1.3%

0.3¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)

Elazar Stern

1.3%

Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Elazar Stern
Last price: 1.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,545 (45.5x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Gadi Eisenkot

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Gadi Eisenkot

Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Gadi Eisenkot
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Gilad Kariv

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Gilad Kariv

Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Gilad Kariv
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Moshe Gafni

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Moshe Gafni

Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Moshe Gafni
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Kalshi

Naama Lazimi

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, just now

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Naama Lazimi

Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Naama Lazimi
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Yitzhak Goldknopf

Not listed

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, just now

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Yitzhak Goldknopf

Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Kalshi

Contract: Yitzhak Goldknopf
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Amir Ohana

0.9%

0.6%

0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, just now

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Amir Ohana

0.9%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Amir Ohana
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $206

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Amir Ohana
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $26

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu

0.6%

0.4%

0.1¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $14,286 (143x)

Benjamin Netanyahu

0.6%

Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)

Polymarket

Contract: Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price: 0.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $8,333 (83.3x)
Volume: $472

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $14,286 (143x)
Volume: $395

Trade this on Polymarket

Benny Gantz

0.6%

0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Benny Gantz

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Benny Gantz
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Hili Tropper

0.6%

0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Hili Tropper

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Hili Tropper
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $896

Trade this on Polymarket

Yoaz Hendel

0.6%

0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Yoaz Hendel

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoaz Hendel
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $162

Trade this on Polymarket

Matan Kahana

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Matan Kahana

0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Matan Kahana
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $942

Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Naftali Bennett on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 18.5¢ (1750 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

No Next Minister by Feb 28
Yoav Ben-Tzur
Naftali Bennett

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Next Minister by Feb 28 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $110K
Liquidity: $432K
Outcomes listed: 19
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $89K
Liquidity: $251K
Outcomes listed: 16
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $18K
Liquidity: $126K
Outcomes listed: 18
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 9s ago

Volume: $46K
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 29
Trading closes: Oct 27, 2027

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Simulated: orders fill in full at the venue's best price, with no fees. Not real money and not advice. Your results

Big trades

Loading…

Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

In the news

Headlines from the last 3 days across 4 sources. Overall tone: neutral.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?". No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 38.1%. Next is Yoav Ben-Tzur at 17.5%. $264K has traded across 47 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets

What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

Kalshi

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

More politics markets