What are the odds of No Next Minister by Feb 28 in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

No Next Minister by Feb 28 is currently priced at 37.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Avigdor Lieberman in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Avigdor Lieberman is currently priced at 17.7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Naftali Bennett in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Naftali Bennett is currently priced at 17% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yaron Zelekha in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Yaron Zelekha is currently priced at 10.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yoram Cohen in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Yoram Cohen is currently priced at 9.7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Itamar Ben Gvir in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Itamar Ben Gvir is currently priced at 9.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yitzhak Wasserlauf in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Yitzhak Wasserlauf is currently priced at 8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Ofer Winter in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Ofer Winter is currently priced at 4.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yoav Segalovitz in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Yoav Segalovitz is currently priced at 4.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Israel Katz in Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election??

Israel Katz is currently priced at 4.6% in prediction markets.

Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?

Closes: Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded: $353K
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

No Next Minister by Feb 28 37.8%

Next is Avigdor Lieberman at 17.7%. The venues differ most on Ram Ben-Barak (Polymarket 0.6%, Kalshi 2.5%), a 1.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

No Next Minister by Feb 28

37.8%

37%

36¢ bid, 38¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

38¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $263 (2.63x)

No Next Minister by Feb 28

37.8%

Polymarket 37.4%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 39%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 37%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 37.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 38.3¢
Sell Yes: 36.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $261 (2.61x)
Volume: $53K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 39%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 40¢
Sell Yes: 38¢
$100 on Yes pays: $250 (2.50x)
Volume: $33K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price: 37%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 38¢
Sell Yes: 36¢
$100 on Yes pays: $263 (2.63x)
Volume: $21K

Trade this on Polymarket

Avigdor Lieberman

17.7%

13.7%

13.3¢ bid, 14.1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

14.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $709 (7.09x)

Avigdor Lieberman

17.7%

Polymarket 20.5%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 13.7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)

Polymarket

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 20.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 20.9¢
Sell Yes: 20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $478 (4.78x)
Volume: $17K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Avigdor Lieberman
Last price: 13.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14.1¢
Sell Yes: 13.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $709 (7.09x)
Volume: $12K

Trade this on Polymarket

Naftali Bennett

17%

16%

15¢ bid, 17¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

17¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $588 (5.88x)

Naftali Bennett

17%

Polymarket 18.2%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 16%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)

Polymarket

Contract: Naftali Bennett
Last price: 18.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 18.6¢
Sell Yes: 17.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $538 (5.38x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Naftali Bennett
Last price: 16%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 17¢
Sell Yes: 15¢
$100 on Yes pays: $588 (5.88x)
Volume: $12K

Trade this on Polymarket

Yaron Zelekha

10.8%

10.6¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

11¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Yaron Zelekha

10.8%

Polymarket 10.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yaron Zelekha
Last price: 10.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Polymarket

Yoram CohenArb

9.7%

10.5%

10¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

16%

8¢ bid, 16¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)

Yoram CohenArb

9.7%

Polymarket 1.7%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 16%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 1.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.2¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,545 (45.5x)
Volume: $611

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 10.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 10¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yoram Cohen
Last price: 16%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 16¢
Sell Yes: 8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $625 (6.25x)
Volume: $863

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8¢ nets 580 bps before fees.

Itamar Ben GvirArb

Kalshi: “Itamar Ben-Gvir”

9.5%

6¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

17%

12¢ bid, 18¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

5.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Itamar Ben GvirArb

9.5%

Polymarket 3.6%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 7%polled, 42s agoKalshi 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price: 3.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,695 (16.9x)
Volume: $930

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Itamar Ben-Gvir
Last price: 17%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 18¢
Sell Yes: 12¢
$100 on Yes pays: $556 (5.56x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 610 bps before fees.

Yitzhak Wasserlauf

Not listed

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Yitzhak Wasserlauf

Kalshi 8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Kalshi

Contract: Yitzhak Wasserlauf
Last price: 8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Ofer Winter

4.8%

4.5%

3¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Ofer Winter

4.8%

Polymarket 5.1%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ofer Winter
Last price: 5.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.7¢
Sell Yes: 3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,493 (14.9x)
Volume: $9K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Ofer Winter
Last price: 4.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $9K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ofer Winter
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $60

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Yoav Segalovitz

Polymarket: “Yoav Segalovich”

4.8%

2.2¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

7.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)

Yoav Segalovitz

4.8%

Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoav Segalovich
Last price: 4.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.4¢
Sell Yes: 2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,351 (13.5x)
Volume: $667

Trade this on Polymarket

Israel Katz

4.6%

4.1%

0.2¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

6.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)

Israel Katz

4.6%

Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 4.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.2¢
Sell Yes: 3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,613 (16.1x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Israel Katz
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,266 (12.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 30 more outcomes

Bezalel Smotrich

4.2%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $33,333 (333x)

Bezalel Smotrich

4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 10.6%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 4.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.1¢
Sell Yes: 3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,961 (19.6x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 10.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 19.6¢
Sell Yes: 1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $510 (5.10x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $33,333 (333x)
Volume: $800

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Bezalel Smotrich
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Matan Kahana

4.1%

4.7%

0.4¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Matan Kahana

4.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 42s agoKalshi 7%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Matan Kahana
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $942

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Matan Kahana
Last price: 4.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,124 (11.2x)
Volume: $11K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Matan Kahana
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $99

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Shaul Meridor

4.1%

1.4¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

6.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Shaul Meridor

4.1%

Polymarket 4.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Shaul Meridor
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,471 (14.7x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Gadi Eizenkot

3.6%

0.3%

0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

0.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $20,000 (200x)

Gadi Eizenkot

3.6%

Polymarket 4.8%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)

Polymarket

Contract: Gadi Eizenkot
Last price: 4.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,282 (12.8x)
Volume: $947

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Gadi Eizenkot
Last price: 0.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.5¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $20,000 (200x)
Volume: $345

Trade this on Polymarket

Yair Lapid

3.2%

2.5%

0.4¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

4.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)

Yair Lapid

3.2%

Polymarket 5.4%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Lapid
Last price: 5.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.8¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,020 (10.2x)
Volume: $616

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Lapid
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,174 (21.7x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Talya Lankri

3.5%

2¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Talya Lankri

Polymarket 3.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Talya Lankri
Last price: 3.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Talya Lankri
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Yair Golan

2.9%

8.1%

1.2¢ bid, 14.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Yair Golan

2.9%

Polymarket 1%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 8.1%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,556 (55.6x)
Volume: $836

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $205

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 8.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $671 (6.71x)
Volume: $426

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yair Golan
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Amir Ohana

2.4%

1.3%

0.6¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Amir Ohana

2.4%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 42s agoKalshi 4%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Amir Ohana
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $206

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Amir Ohana
Last price: 1.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Amir Ohana
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Nir Barkat

2.1%

0.6¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

3.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Nir Barkat

2.1%

Polymarket 2.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nir Barkat
Last price: 2.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,778 (27.8x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Moshe Feiglin

1.8%

2.6%

0.2¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

0.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Moshe Feiglin

1.8%

Polymarket 0.4%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Polymarket

Contract: Moshe Feiglin
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $16,667 (167x)
Volume: $724

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Moshe Feiglin
Last price: 2.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,041 (20.4x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Ram Ben-Barak

1.6%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Ram Ben-Barak

1.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ram Ben-Barak
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $412

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ram Ben-Barak
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Eli Cohen

1.4%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Eli Cohen

1.4%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 2.8%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $607

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 2.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4.6¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,174 (21.7x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $331

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Eli Cohen
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Yoaz Hendel

1.2%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Yoaz Hendel

1.2%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yoaz Hendel
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $162

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Yoaz Hendel
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $62

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yoaz Hendel
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Elazar Stern

1.2%

1.5%

1.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)

Elazar Stern

1.2%

Polymarket 1.3%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Elazar Stern
Last price: 1.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.1¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,762 (47.6x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Elazar Stern
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,556 (55.6x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Elazar Stern
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Hili Tropper

Polymarket: “Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)”

1.1%

0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Hili Tropper

1.1%

Polymarket 1.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)
Last price: 1.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $355

Trade this on Polymarket

Amichai Eliyahu

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Amichai Eliyahu

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Amichai Eliyahu
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Chili Tropper

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Chili Tropper

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Chili Tropper
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Haim Katz

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Haim Katz

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Haim Katz
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Hamad Amar

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Hamad Amar

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Hamad Amar
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Limor Son Har-Melech

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Limor Son Har-Melech

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Limor Son Har-Melech
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Kalshi

Tally Gotliv

Not listed

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Tally Gotliv

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Kalshi

Contract: Tally Gotliv
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Yoav Segalovitz

Not listed

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Yoav Segalovitz

Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Kalshi

Contract: Yoav Segalovitz
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Kalshi

Avi Dichter

0.9%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Avi Dichter

0.9%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Avi Dichter
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $781

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Avi Dichter
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Meirav Ben-Ari

0.9%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Meirav Ben-Ari

0.9%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Meirav Ben-Ari
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $286

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Meirav Ben-Ari
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Yoram Cohen

Polymarket: “Yossi Cohen”, Kalshi: “Yossi Cohen”

0.9%

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Yoram Cohen

0.9%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yossi Cohen
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $861

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yossi Cohen
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Gideon Sa'ar

Polymarket: “Gideon Sa’ar”

0.8%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Gideon Sa'ar

0.8%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Gideon Sa’ar
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Gideon Sa'ar
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu

0.6%

0.5%

0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

0.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $14,286 (143x)

Benjamin Netanyahu

0.6%

Polymarket 0.8%polled, 42s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)

Polymarket

Contract: Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price: 0.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $472

Trade this on Polymarket

Polymarket

Contract: Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $14,286 (143x)
Volume: $395

Trade this on Polymarket

Hili Tropper

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Hili Tropper

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Hili Tropper
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $896

Trade this on Polymarket

Benny Gantz

0.6%

0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Benny Gantz

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Benny Gantz
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask

polled, 42s ago

Not listed

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Orit Farkash-Hacohen

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $612

Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Itamar Ben Gvir on Polymarket at 5.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 12¢ (610 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

No Next Minister by Feb 28
Avigdor Lieberman
Naftali Bennett

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Next Minister by Feb 28 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 41s ago

Volume: $112K
Liquidity: $480K
Outcomes listed: 19
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 41s ago

Volume: $89K
Liquidity: $264K
Outcomes listed: 16
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 41s ago

Volume: $71K
Liquidity: $292K
Outcomes listed: 19
Trading closes: Mar 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 41s ago

Volume: $81K
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 24
Trading closes: Oct 27, 2027

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Simulated: orders fill in full at the venue's best price, with no fees. Not real money and not advice. Your results

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?". No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 37.8%. Next is Avigdor Lieberman at 17.7%. $353K has traded across 40 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets

What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

Kalshi

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

More politics markets