The Prediction Markets

Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

Closes
Jan 1, 2045, in 221 months
Traded
$39K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Li Qiang 45.7%

Next is Ding Xuexiang at 20.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Li Qiang 45.7%Ding Xuexiang 20.1%Zhao Leji 13.7%Li Xi 10.1%Chen Jining 7.4%9 others 3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Li Qiang
45.7%
Kalshi 50%(45.7% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Li Qiang
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
45.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ding Xuexiang
20.1%
Kalshi 22%(20.1% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ding Xuexiang
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
20.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zhao Leji
13.7%
Kalshi 15%(13.7% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zhao Leji
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Li Xi
10.1%
Kalshi 11%(10.1% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Li Xi
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chen Jining
7.4%
Kalshi 8.1%(7.4% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chen Jining
Last price
8.1%
Fair, margin removed
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yin Li
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yin Li
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cai Qi
0.8%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cai Qi
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Li Ganjie
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Li Ganjie
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Zhang Guoqing
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zhang Guoqing
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Kalshi
Chen Min'er
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chen Min'er
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
He Lifeng
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
He Lifeng
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Kalshi
Ma Xingrui
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ma Xingrui
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Kalshi
Wang Huning
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wang Huning
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Kalshi
Yin Yong
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yin Yong
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Li Qiang
  • Ding Xuexiang
  • Zhao Leji

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?". Li Qiang leads at 45.7%. Next is Ding Xuexiang at 20.1%. $39K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2045.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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