The Prediction Markets

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$148K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Donald Trump 50%

Next is Prince Andrew at 44%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Donald Trump
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Prince Andrew
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Prince Andrew
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Woody Allen
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Woody Allen
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Clinton
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Clinton
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ehud Barak
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ehud Barak
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barack Obama
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Gates
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Gates
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naomi Campbell
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naomi Campbell
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillary Clinton
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Biden
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Kevin Spacey
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Spacey
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alec Baldwin
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alec Baldwin
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Hawking
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Hawking
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rupert Murdoch
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rupert Murdoch
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Combs
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Combs
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Jackson
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Kalshi
Leonardo DiCaprio
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leonardo DiCaprio
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$818
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donald Trump
  • Prince Andrew
  • Woody Allen

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?". Donald Trump leads at 50%. Next is Prince Andrew at 44%. $148K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets