The Prediction Markets

Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?

Starts in 657 daysKickoff
Traded
$3.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%

Next is Elissa Slotkin at 7.6%. The venues differ most on Bernie Sanders (Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.5-point gap.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.3%Elissa Slotkin 7.6%Pete Buttigieg 6%Andy Beshear 5.3%Wes Moore 5.3%46 others 67.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb
8.3%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.1% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 8.8%(8.1% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
8.8%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$309K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8.8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Elissa SlotkinArb
7.6%
Polymarket 6.7%(5.8% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 9%(8.3% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
6.7%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elissa Slotkin
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 8.2¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Pete ButtigiegArb
6%
Polymarket 5.7%(4.9% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 7%(6.5% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
5.7%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6.3¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Andy Beshear
5.3%
Polymarket 4.8%(4.2% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 6.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$148K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.8¢.

Wes Moore
5.3%
Polymarket 6.4%(5.5% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 5.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
6.4%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

James Talarico
5.2%
Polymarket 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.7¢.

Gretchen Whitmer
4.5%
Polymarket 5.3%(4.6% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
5.3%
Fair, margin removed
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.9¢.

Jon Ossoff
4.4%
Polymarket 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.9¢.

Mark Kelly
4.3%
Polymarket 4.2%(3.6% fair)polled, 19s agoKalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
4.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Kelly
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.8¢.

Raphael Warnock
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.7¢.

Show 41 more outcomes
Josh Shapiro
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.3¢.

Kim Kardashian
2.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin NewsomArb
2.2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$172K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.7¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

J.B. Pritzker
2.2%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Phil Murphy
2.2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Murphy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$993
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Abdul El-Sayed
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Klobuchar
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Klobuchar
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$148K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Roy CooperArb
1.7%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Roy Cooper
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1.4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.6¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Bernie SandersArb
1.4%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.3¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Chris MurphyArb
1.3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Murphy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Michelle Obama
1.3%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Obama
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$123K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Rahm Emanuel
1.2%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Zohran Mamdani
1.2%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Andrew Yang
1.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Yang
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ro Khanna
1.1%
Polymarket 2%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Ruben Gallego
1.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Gina RaimondoArb
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gina Raimondo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

LeBron James
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Barack Obama
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Barack Obama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Hillary Clinton
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hillary Clinton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jon Stewart
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dwayne Johnson
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dwayne Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elizabeth Warren
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Warren
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Graham Platner
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Graham Platner
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamie Dimon
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Dimon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jasmine Crockett
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jasmine Crockett
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cory Booker
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cory Booker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Hunter Biden
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hunter Biden
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jared Polis
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$820
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Polis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Liz Cheney
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liz Cheney
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Oprah Winfrey
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oprah Winfrey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Beto O'Rourke
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beto O’Rourke
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beto O'Rourke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Stephen A. Smith
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Dwayne Johnson
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
George Clooney
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Clooney
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chelsea Clinton
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chelsea Clinton
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Walz
0.4%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Walz
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

John Fetterman
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

Mark Cuban
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 19s agoKalshi 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Cuban
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.3¢.

Tony Evers
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Evers
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Gavin Newsom on Polymarket at 1.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 2.7¢ (150 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: democrats.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Democratic Party
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Elissa Slotkin
  • Pete Buttigieg

Live prices for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the Democratic VP nominee in 2028?". Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 8.3%. Next is Elissa Slotkin at 7.6%. $3.4M has traded across 51 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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