The Prediction Markets

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 25 months
Traded
$122K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ted Cruz 48.5%

Next is J.D. Vance at 36.5%. The venues differ most on Kamala Harris (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 4.9%), a 7.1-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ted Cruz
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
33.6%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

Rahm Emanuel
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
20.9%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Marjorie Taylor Greene
20.9%
Polymarket 20.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $242 (2.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
20.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$242 (2.42x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
18.8%
Polymarket 18.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $269 (2.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
18.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$269 (2.69x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
13.3%
Polymarket 17.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.1¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$524 (5.24x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Ron DeSantis
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Ro Khanna
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Kamala HarrisArb
6.7%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 610 bps before fees.

Josh Shapiro
5.8%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.5¢.

J.B. Pritzker
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
3.5%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.4¢.

Wes Moore
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rand Paul
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2.2%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Gretchen Whitmer
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Youngkin
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Stewart
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Kamala Harris on Kalshi at 4.9¢, sell on Polymarket at 11¢ (610 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: person, the Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ted Cruz
  • J.D. Vance
  • Pete Buttigieg

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Ted Cruz for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?". Ted Cruz leads at 48.5%. Next is J.D. Vance at 36.5%. $122K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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