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What the markets expect
Rahm Emanuel 22.8%
Next is Kamala Harris at 9.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Rahm Emanuel22.8%28%22.8% fair27¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 24s ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Rahm Emanuel22.8%Kalshi 28%(22.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Rahm Emanuel
22.8%
28%
22.8% fair
27¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Rahm Emanuel
22.8%
Kalshi 28%(22.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 28%
- Fair, margin removed
- 22.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kamala Harris9.8%12%9.8% fair5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 24s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Kamala Harris9.8%Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kamala Harris
9.8%
12%
9.8% fair
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kamala Harris
9.8%
Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $6K
Ro Khanna9.8%12%9.8% fair12¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 24s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Ro Khanna9.8%Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Ro Khanna
9.8%
12%
9.8% fair
12¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Ro Khanna
9.8%
Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $3K
Andy Beshear7.3%9%7.3% fair7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 24s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Andy Beshear7.3%Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Andy Beshear
7.3%
9%
7.3% fair
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Andy Beshear
7.3%
Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Gavin Newsom7.3%9%7.3% fair7¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 24s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Gavin Newsom7.3%Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Gavin Newsom
7.3%
9%
7.3% fair
7¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Gavin Newsom
7.3%
Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $8K
Pete Buttigieg7.3%9%7.3% fair8¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 24s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Pete Buttigieg7.3%Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Pete Buttigieg
7.3%
9%
7.3% fair
8¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Pete Buttigieg
7.3%
Kalshi 9%(7.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $8K
Cory Booker3.3%4%3.3% fair1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cory Booker3.3%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cory Booker
3.3%
4%
3.3% fair
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cory Booker
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $308
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1.7%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Amy Klobuchar1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Amy Klobuchar1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Amy Klobuchar
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Amy Klobuchar
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amy Klobuchar
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $46
Andrew Yang1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Andrew Yang1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andrew Yang
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Andrew Yang
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Yang
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $70
Show 23 more outcomesHide 23 outcomes
Graham Platner1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Graham Platner1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Graham Platner
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Graham Platner
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Graham Platner
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Gretchen Whitmer1.6%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Gretchen Whitmer1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gretchen Whitmer
1.6%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gretchen Whitmer
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $500
J.B. Pritzker1.6%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)J.B. Pritzker1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
J.B. Pritzker
1.6%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
J.B. Pritzker
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
James Talarico1.6%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)James Talarico1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico
1.6%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
James Talarico
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $40
Jon Ossoff1.6%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jon Ossoff1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Ossoff
1.6%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Ossoff
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Josh Shapiro1.6%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Josh Shapiro1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Shapiro
1.6%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Josh Shapiro
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Mark Kelly1.6%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mark Kelly1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
1.6%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $35
Mitch Landrieu1.6%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Mitch Landrieu1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mitch Landrieu
1.6%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Mitch Landrieu
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mitch Landrieu
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $127
Raphael Warnock1.6%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Raphael Warnock1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Raphael Warnock
1.6%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Raphael Warnock
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $76
Stephen A. Smith1.6%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Stephen A. Smith1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Stephen A. Smith
1.6%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Stephen A. Smith
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Wes Moore1.6%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Wes Moore1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
1.6%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Beto O'Rourke0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Beto O'Rourke0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Beto O'Rourke
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Beto O'Rourke
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Beto O'Rourke
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Chris Murphy0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Chris Murphy0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chris Murphy
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Chris Murphy
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Murphy
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Elissa Slotkin0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Elissa Slotkin0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Elissa Slotkin
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Elissa Slotkin
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elissa Slotkin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Elizabeth Warren0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Elizabeth Warren0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Elizabeth Warren
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Elizabeth Warren
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elizabeth Warren
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Gina Raimondo0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Gina Raimondo0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gina Raimondo
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gina Raimondo
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gina Raimondo
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $63
Jared Polis0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jared Polis0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jared Polis
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jared Polis
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jared Polis
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Jasmine Crockett0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jasmine Crockett0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jasmine Crockett
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jasmine Crockett
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jasmine Crockett
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Stewart0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Jon Stewart0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Stewart
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Jon Stewart
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Cuban0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mark Cuban0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Cuban
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Cuban
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Cuban
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Michelle Obama0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michelle Obama0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michelle Obama
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michelle Obama
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Roy Cooper0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Roy Cooper0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Roy Cooper
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Roy Cooper
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Ruben Gallego0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ruben Gallego0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ruben Gallego
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ruben Gallego
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ruben Gallego
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, Ballotpedia, The Wall Street Journal
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Rahm Emanuel
- Kamala Harris
- Ro Khanna
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)". Rahm Emanuel leads at 22.8%. Next is Kamala Harris at 9.8%. $48K has traded across 33 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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