The Prediction Markets

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$463K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth 26%

Next is Susie Wiles at 17%. The venues differ most on John Healey (Polymarket 8%, Kalshi 19%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
Susie Wiles
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Howard Lutnick
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
John HealeyArb
10.8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 24s agoKalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Healey
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Healey
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Bridget Phillipson
9.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 24s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bridget Phillipson
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bridget Phillipson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Miatta Fahnbulleh
7.6%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 24s agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.1¢.

Alan Campbell
7.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alan Campbell
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$412 (4.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alan Campbell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Jonathan Reynolds
6.7%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonathan Reynolds
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Reynolds
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Indeterminate
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indeterminate
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Markwayne Mullin
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markwayne Mullin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 38 more outcomes
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Heidi Alexander
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Heidi Alexander
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Heidi Alexander
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Lucy Powell
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lucy Powell
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lucy Powell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Yvette Cooper
4.4%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yvette Cooper
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yvette Cooper
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Lisa Nandy
4.3%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 24s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Nandy
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Nandy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Alex Norris
4.2%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Norris
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Norris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Stephen Kinnock
3.5%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Kinnock
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Kinnock
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Angela Eagle
3.3%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angela Eagle
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Eagle
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.3¢.

Angela Smith
3.2%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angela Smith
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Smith
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Douglas Alexander
3.2%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Douglas Alexander
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Douglas Alexander
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Chris Bryant
3%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Bryant
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Bryant
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Wes Streeting
2.8%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wes Streeting
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Streeting
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Angela Rayner
2.6%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angela Rayner
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Rayner
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Ed Miliband
2.6%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Miliband
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ed Miliband
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Louise Haigh
2.4%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louise Haigh
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Louise Haigh
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Pat McFadden
2.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pat McFadden
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pat McFadden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Shabana Mahmood
2.2%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 24s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shabana Mahmood
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shabana Mahmood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Brooke Rollins
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Wright
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Collins
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Bessent
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anneliese Midgley
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 24s agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anneliese Midgley
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anneliese Midgley
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Christopher Phelan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Phelan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug Burgum
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jay Clayton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jay Clayton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
John Ratcliffe
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Sonderling
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Sonderling
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee Zeldin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Linda McMahon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Kratsios
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Kratsios
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russell Vought
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Turner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Duffy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Todd Blanche
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy John Healey on Polymarket at 10¢, sell on Kalshi at 11¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, The New York Times, BBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 20, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Susie Wiles
  • Howard Lutnick

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Pete Hegseth for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?". Pete Hegseth leads at 26%. Next is Susie Wiles at 17%. $463K has traded across 48 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify. Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution. If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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