The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs?

Closes
Dec 31, 2035, in 112 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Waldron 81.3%

Next is Ashok Varadhan at 5.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

John Waldron 81.3%Ashok Varadhan 5.5%Kim Posnett 5.5%Marc Nachmann 5.5%Dan Dees 1.1%Matt McClure 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
John Waldron
81.3%
Kalshi 74%(81.3% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Waldron
Last price
74%
Fair, margin removed
81.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ashok Varadhan
5.5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ashok Varadhan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Kim Posnett
5.5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kim Posnett
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Nachmann
5.5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Nachmann
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Dees
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Dees
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt McClure
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt McClure
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Washington Post, ESPN, NBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Waldron
  • Ashok Varadhan
  • Kim Posnett

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs?". John Waldron leads at 81.3%. Next is Ashok Varadhan at 5.5%. $3K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2035.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets