The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next James Bond?

Closes
Jan 1, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$2.6M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Jack Lowden 53%

Next is Callum Turner at 32%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 31 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jack Lowden
53%
Kalshi 53%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Lowden
Price
53%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Callum Turner
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Callum Turner
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$603K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O'Connor
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$143K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Barton
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Barton
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jacob Elordi
8%
Kalshi 8%live, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jacob Elordi
Price
8%
As of
Live feed, 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O'Connor
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack O'Connell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$290K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott Rose-Marsh
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Rose-Marsh
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Pierre
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Pierre
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlie Hunnam
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlie Hunnam
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
George MacKay
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
George MacKay
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Idris Elba
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Idris Elba
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Mescal
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Mescal
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Madden
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Madden
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Holland
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Kalshi
Damson Idris
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Damson Idris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris Dickinson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris Dickinson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Kalshi
Henry Ashton
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Henry Ashton
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Henry Cavill
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Henry Cavill
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicholas Hoult
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicholas Hoult
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Theo James
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Theo James
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Blyth
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Blyth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Francis
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Francis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cillian Murphy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cillian Murphy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Norton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Norton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jonathan Bailey
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Bailey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicholas Galitzine
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicholas Galitzine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Kalshi
Regé-Jean Page
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Regé-Jean Page
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Hardy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Hardy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Luke Evans
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luke Evans
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Variety

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jack Lowden
  • Callum Turner
  • Josh O'Connor

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next James Bond?". Jack Lowden leads at 53%. Next is Callum Turner at 32%. $2.6M has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2030.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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