The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Starts in 701 daysKickoff
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Anthony Albanese 47.2%

Next is Pauline Hanson at 23.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Anthony Albanese 47.2%Pauline Hanson 23.1%Angus Taylor 19.9%Jim Chalmers 8.1%Robbie Katter 1.1%Larissa Waters 0.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Anthony Albanese
47.2%
Polymarket 45%(47.2% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Albanese
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
47.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pauline Hanson
23.1%
Polymarket 22%(23.1% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pauline Hanson
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
23.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Angus Taylor
19.9%
Polymarket 19%(19.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angus Taylor
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
19.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jim Chalmers
8.1%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jim Chalmers
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robbie Katter
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robbie Katter
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Larissa Waters
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Larissa Waters
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthony Albanese
  • Pauline Hanson
  • Angus Taylor

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? ". Anthony Albanese leads at 47.2%. Next is Pauline Hanson at 23.1%. $35K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 24, 2028.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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