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What the markets expect
Nigel Farage 27%
Next is Shabana Mahmood at 24%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Nigel Farage27%27%21¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 1 min ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Nigel Farage27%Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Nigel Farage
27%
27%
21¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Nigel Farage
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nigel Farage
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $30
Shabana Mahmood24%24%24¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 1 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Shabana Mahmood24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Shabana Mahmood
24%
24%
24¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Shabana Mahmood
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shabana Mahmood
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kemi Badenoch22%22%18¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Kemi Badenoch22%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kemi Badenoch
22%
22%
18¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kemi Badenoch
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kemi Badenoch
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $5
Robert Jenrick5.5%5.5%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Robert Jenrick5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Robert Jenrick
5.5%
5.5%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Robert Jenrick
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robert Jenrick
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Pat McFadden5%5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pat McFadden5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pat McFadden
5%
5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pat McFadden
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pat McFadden
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Rupert Lowe5%5%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Rupert Lowe5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rupert Lowe
5%
5%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rupert Lowe
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rupert Lowe
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $494
Zia Yusuf4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Zia Yusuf4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Zia Yusuf
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Zia Yusuf
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zia Yusuf
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Richard Tice4%4%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Richard Tice4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Richard Tice
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Richard Tice
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Richard Tice
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Al Carns3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Al Carns3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Al Carns
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Al Carns
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Al Carns
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Jess Phillips3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jess Phillips3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jess Phillips
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jess Phillips
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jess Phillips
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
Darren Jones3%3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Darren Jones3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Darren Jones
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Darren Jones
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Darren Jones
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
John Healey3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)John Healey3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
John Healey
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
John Healey
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John Healey
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Jonathan Reynolds3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jonathan Reynolds3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jonathan Reynolds
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jonathan Reynolds
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jonathan Reynolds
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Boris Johnson2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Boris Johnson2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Boris Johnson
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Boris Johnson
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boris Johnson
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Bridget Phillipson2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Bridget Phillipson2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bridget Phillipson
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bridget Phillipson
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bridget Phillipson
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Davey2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Ed Davey2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Davey
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Davey
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ed Davey
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Miliband2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Ed Miliband2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Miliband
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ed Miliband
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ed Miliband
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Emma Reynolds2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Emma Reynolds2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Emma Reynolds
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Emma Reynolds
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Emma Reynolds
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
James Cleverly2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)James Cleverly2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
James Cleverly
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
James Cleverly
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Cleverly
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Lisa Nandy2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lisa Nandy2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lisa Nandy
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lisa Nandy
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lisa Nandy
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Louise Haigh2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Louise Haigh2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Louise Haigh
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Louise Haigh
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Louise Haigh
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Lucy Powell2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lucy Powell2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lucy Powell
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lucy Powell
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lucy Powell
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Mel Stride2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Mel Stride2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Mel Stride
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Mel Stride
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mel Stride
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
No new person2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)No new person2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
No new person
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
No new person
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- No new person
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Rachel Reeves2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Rachel Reeves2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rachel Reeves
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rachel Reeves
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rachel Reeves
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Wes Streeting2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Wes Streeting2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Wes Streeting
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Wes Streeting
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wes Streeting
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Yvette Cooper2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Yvette Cooper2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yvette Cooper
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yvette Cooper
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yvette Cooper
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Angela Rayner2%2%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Angela Rayner2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Angela Rayner
2%
2%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Angela Rayner
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Angela Rayner
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $3
Keir Starmer2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Keir Starmer2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Keir Starmer
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Keir Starmer
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keir Starmer
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Nigel Farage
- Shabana Mahmood
- Kemi Badenoch
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?". Nigel Farage leads at 27%. Next is Shabana Mahmood at 24%. $2K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2035.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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