The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Closes
Jan 8, 2099, in 879 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Mette Frederiksen 30.3%

Next is Kaja Kallas at 22.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Mette Frederiksen 30.3%Kaja Kallas 22.5%Keir Starmer 16.9%Alexander Stubb 13.5%Klaus Iohannis 9%3 others 7.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mette Frederiksen
30.3%
Kalshi 27%(30.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mette Frederiksen
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
30.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaja Kallas
22.5%
Kalshi 20%(22.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaja Kallas
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keir Starmer
16.9%
Kalshi 15%(16.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keir Starmer
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
16.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Stubb
13.5%
Kalshi 12%(13.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Stubb
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Klaus Iohannis
9%
Kalshi 8%(9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Klaus Iohannis
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Petr Pavel
5.6%
Kalshi 5%(5.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Petr Pavel
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$645
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Wallace
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Wallace
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ursula von der Leyen
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ursula von der Leyen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Atlantic Treaty Organization

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mette Frederiksen
  • Kaja Kallas
  • Keir Starmer

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?". Mette Frederiksen leads at 30.3%. Next is Kaja Kallas at 22.5%. $8K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2099.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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