The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Closed
Feb 28, 2026
Traded
$58K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Feb 28, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Rafael Grossi
51.9%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Grossi
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 31.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $318 (3.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
31.4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$318 (3.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Bachelet
13.1%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Bachelet
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rebeca Grynspan
12.5%
Polymarket 12.6%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rebeca Grynspan
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacinda Ardern
4.2%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacinda Ardern
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Achim Steiner
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achim Steiner
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alicia Bárcena
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alicia Bárcena
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$994
Trade this on Polymarket
Amina Mohammed
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amina Mohammed
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Donat
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Donat
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
David Choquehuanca
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Choquehuanca
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kristalina Georgieva
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristalina Georgieva
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mia Mottley
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mia Mottley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vuk Jeremić
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3892 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vuk Jeremić
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rafael Grossi
  • Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
  • Michelle Bachelet

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?". Rafael Grossi last traded at 51.9%. Next is Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés at 16.9%. $58K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Feb 28, 2026.

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by February 28, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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