The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Closes
Jan 8, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Adam Telle 35.2%

Next is Sean Parnell at 20.3%. The venues differ most on Marc Andersen (Polymarket 14%, Kalshi 8%), a 6.0-point gap.

Adam Telle 35.2%Sean Parnell 20.3%Marc Andersen 11.4%W. Jordan Gillis 8.8%Michael Obadal 7.3%4 others 17%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Adam Telle
35.2%
Polymarket 36%(33.7% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 41%(37.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
33.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
37.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 39¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Sean Parnell
20.3%
Polymarket 19%(17.8% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 24%(21.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
21.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Marc Andersen
11.4%
Polymarket 14%(13.1% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

W. Jordan Gillis
8.8%
Polymarket 10.3%(9.6% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
10.3%
Fair, margin removed
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Michael Obadal
7.3%
Polymarket 8%(7.5% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Brent Ingraham
5.6%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 8%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Brian Mast
5.5%
Polymarket 8%(7.5% fair)polled, 41s agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Charles Young III
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 6%(5.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Derrick Anderson
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Derrick Anderson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Department of the Army, The White House, U.S. Senate
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adam Telle
  • Sean Parnell
  • Marc Andersen

Live prices for Adam Telle

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?". Adam Telle leads at 35.2%. Next is Sean Parnell at 20.3%. $16K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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