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What the markets expect
Andrew Oldham 15.1%
Next is D. John Sauer at 12.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Andrew Oldham15.1%13%15.1% fair12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 30s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Andrew Oldham15.1%Kalshi 13%(15.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Andrew Oldham
15.1%
13%
15.1% fair
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Andrew Oldham
15.1%
Kalshi 13%(15.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Oldham
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 15.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $43K
D. John Sauer12.7%11%12.7% fair11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 30s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)D. John Sauer12.7%Kalshi 11%(12.7% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
D. John Sauer
12.7%
11%
12.7% fair
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
D. John Sauer
12.7%
Kalshi 11%(12.7% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- D. John Sauer
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $20K
James Ho10.1%8.7%10.1% fair7.9¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 30s ago8.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)James Ho10.1%Kalshi 8.7%(10.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
James Ho
10.1%
8.7%
10.1% fair
7.9¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
8.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
James Ho
10.1%
Kalshi 8.7%(10.1% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Ho
- Last price
- 8.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $33K
Ted Cruz8.2%7.1%8.2% fair7.1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 30s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Ted Cruz8.2%Kalshi 7.1%(8.2% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ted Cruz
8.2%
7.1%
8.2% fair
7.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ted Cruz
8.2%
Kalshi 7.1%(8.2% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ted Cruz
- Last price
- 7.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $46K
Aileen Cannon7.9%6.8%7.9% fair6.6¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 30s ago7.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)Aileen Cannon7.9%Kalshi 6.8%(7.9% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Aileen Cannon
7.9%
6.8%
7.9% fair
6.6¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
7.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Aileen Cannon
7.9%
Kalshi 6.8%(7.9% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aileen Cannon
- Last price
- 6.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $47K
Emil Bove4.9%4.2%4.9% fair4.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago4.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Emil Bove4.9%Kalshi 4.2%(4.9% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Emil Bove
4.9%
4.2%
4.9% fair
4.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
4.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Emil Bove
4.9%
Kalshi 4.2%(4.9% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Emil Bove
- Last price
- 4.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $18K
Michael Park4.6%4%4.6% fair2.8¢ bid, 4.6¢ askpolled, 30s ago4.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)Michael Park4.6%Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Michael Park
4.6%
4%
4.6% fair
2.8¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
4.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Michael Park
4.6%
Kalshi 4%(4.6% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Park
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $17K
Neomi Rao3.7%3.2%3.7% fair1.9¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago3.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)Neomi Rao3.7%Kalshi 3.2%(3.7% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Neomi Rao
3.7%
3.2%
3.7% fair
1.9¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
3.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Neomi Rao
3.7%
Kalshi 3.2%(3.7% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Neomi Rao
- Last price
- 3.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $17K
Allison Jones Rushing2.3%2%0.4¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 30s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Allison Jones Rushing2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Allison Jones Rushing
2.3%
2%
0.4¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Allison Jones Rushing
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Allison Jones Rushing
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $13K
Amul Thapar2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 30s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Amul Thapar2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Amul Thapar
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Amul Thapar
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amul Thapar
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $49K
Show 31 more outcomesHide 31 outcomes
Mike Lee2.3%2%1.7¢ bid, 2.3¢ askpolled, 30s ago2.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)Mike Lee2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Mike Lee
2.3%
2%
1.7¢ bid, 2.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Mike Lee
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Lee
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,348 (43.5x)
- Volume
- $22K
Steven Menashi2.3%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 30s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Steven Menashi2.3%Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Steven Menashi
2.3%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Steven Menashi
2.3%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steven Menashi
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Lawrence VanDyke2.2%1.9%0.9¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Lawrence VanDyke2.2%Kalshi 1.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lawrence VanDyke
2.2%
1.9%
0.9¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lawrence VanDyke
2.2%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lawrence VanDyke
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $19K
Barbara Lagoa2.1%1.8%1.4¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Barbara Lagoa2.1%Kalshi 1.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Barbara Lagoa
2.1%
1.8%
1.4¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Barbara Lagoa
2.1%
Kalshi 1.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Barbara Lagoa
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $16K
David Stras2%1.7%0.4¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)David Stras2%Kalshi 1.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
David Stras
2%
1.7%
0.4¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
David Stras
2%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Stras
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $13K
Patrick Bumatay1.7%1.5%1.4¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Patrick Bumatay1.7%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Patrick Bumatay
1.7%
1.5%
1.4¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Patrick Bumatay
1.7%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Bumatay
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $15K
Kenneth Lee1.5%1.3%0.5¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)Kenneth Lee1.5%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kenneth Lee
1.5%
1.3%
0.5¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kenneth Lee
1.5%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kenneth Lee
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kathryn Mizelle1.4%1.2%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago1.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Kathryn Mizelle1.4%Kalshi 1.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kathryn Mizelle
1.4%
1.2%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kathryn Mizelle
1.4%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kathryn Mizelle
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $17K
Anna St. John1.2%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 30s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Anna St. John1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Anna St. John
1.2%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Anna St. John
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anna St. John
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $322
Eric Tung1.2%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 30s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Eric Tung1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Eric Tung
1.2%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Eric Tung
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eric Tung
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Matthew Schwartz1.2%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 30s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Matthew Schwartz1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Matthew Schwartz
1.2%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Matthew Schwartz
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matthew Schwartz
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Ron DeSantis1.2%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 30s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ron DeSantis1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ron DeSantis
1.2%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ron DeSantis
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ron DeSantis
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $19K
Yaakov Roth1.2%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 30s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Yaakov Roth1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Yaakov Roth
1.2%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Yaakov Roth
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yaakov Roth
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $333
Kevin Newsom1%0.9%0.8¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Kevin Newsom1%Kalshi 0.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kevin Newsom
1%
0.9%
0.8¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kevin Newsom
1%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin Newsom
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $17K
Gregory G. Katsas0.9%0.8%0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Gregory G. Katsas0.9%Kalshi 0.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Gregory G. Katsas
0.9%
0.8%
0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Gregory G. Katsas
0.9%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gregory G. Katsas
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $34K
Matthew Kacsmaryk0.5%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Matthew Kacsmaryk0.5%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Matthew Kacsmaryk
0.5%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Matthew Kacsmaryk
0.5%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matthew Kacsmaryk
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $14K
Stephanos Bibas0.5%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Stephanos Bibas0.5%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephanos Bibas
0.5%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stephanos Bibas
0.5%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stephanos Bibas
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $24K
Stuart Kyle Duncan0.5%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Stuart Kyle Duncan0.5%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stuart Kyle Duncan
0.5%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Stuart Kyle Duncan
0.5%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stuart Kyle Duncan
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $11K
Trevor McFadden0.5%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Trevor McFadden0.5%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Trevor McFadden
0.5%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Trevor McFadden
0.5%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trevor McFadden
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $10K
Britt Grant0.4%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Britt Grant0.4%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Britt Grant
0.4%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Britt Grant
0.4%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Britt Grant
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18K
Mark Martin0.4%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Mark Martin0.4%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mark Martin
0.4%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Mark Martin
0.4%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Martin
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $10K
Allison Eid0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Allison Eid0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Allison Eid
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Allison Eid
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Allison Eid
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $10K
Clint Bolick0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Clint Bolick0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Clint Bolick
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Clint Bolick
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Clint Bolick
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $14K
Evan Young0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Evan Young0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Evan Young
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Evan Young
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Young
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $10K
Joan Larsen0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Joan Larsen0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Joan Larsen
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Joan Larsen
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joan Larsen
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $23K
Kate Comerford Todd0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Kate Comerford Todd0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kate Comerford Todd
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kate Comerford Todd
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kate Comerford Todd
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $22K
Kevin Brobson0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Kevin Brobson0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kevin Brobson
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kevin Brobson
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin Brobson
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kristen Waggoner0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Kristen Waggoner0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kristen Waggoner
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kristen Waggoner
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kristen Waggoner
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $15K
Morse Tan0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Morse Tan0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Morse Tan
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Morse Tan
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Morse Tan
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $24K
Patrick Wyrick0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Patrick Wyrick0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Patrick Wyrick
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Patrick Wyrick
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Wyrick
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $10K
Tom Cotton0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 30s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Tom Cotton0.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tom Cotton
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tom Cotton
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tom Cotton
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $21K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Andrew Oldham
- D. John Sauer
- James Ho
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?". Andrew Oldham leads at 15.1%. Next is D. John Sauer at 12.7%. $752K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 21, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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