What are the odds of None before 2027 in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

None before 2027 is currently priced at 37.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Susie Wiles in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Susie Wiles is currently priced at 25.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Bridget Phillipson in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Bridget Phillipson is currently priced at 12.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of John Healey in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

John Healey is currently priced at 10.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Pete Hegseth in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Pete Hegseth is currently priced at 9.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Miatta Fahnbulleh in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Miatta Fahnbulleh is currently priced at 8.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Indeterminate in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Indeterminate is currently priced at 6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Mike Waltz in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Mike Waltz is currently priced at 5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is currently priced at 4.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Heidi Alexander in Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet??

Heidi Alexander is currently priced at 4.7% in prediction markets.

Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Closes: Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded: $317K
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: 1 min ago

What the markets expect

None before 2027 37.5%

Next is Susie Wiles at 25.8%. The venues differ most on Bridget Phillipson (Polymarket 14.8%, Kalshi 4%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

None before 2027

37.5%

37¢ bid, 37.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

37.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $264 (2.64x)

None before 2027

37.5%

Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $264 (2.64x)

Polymarket

Contract: None before 2027
Last price: 37.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 37.9¢
Sell Yes: 37¢
$100 on Yes pays: $264 (2.64x)
Volume: $72K

Trade this on Polymarket

Susie Wiles

25.8%

24.5¢ bid, 27¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

27¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $370 (3.70x)

Susie Wiles

25.8%

Polymarket 25.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)

Polymarket

Contract: Susie Wiles
Last price: 25.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 27¢
Sell Yes: 24.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $370 (3.70x)
Volume: $15K

Trade this on Polymarket

Bridget Phillipson

12.1%

14.8%

0.7¢ bid, 28.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Bridget Phillipson

12.1%

Polymarket 14.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bridget Phillipson
Last price: 14.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 28.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $347 (3.47x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Bridget Phillipson
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

John HealeyArb

10.1%

7.5%

6¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

18%

11¢ bid, 18¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

John HealeyArb

10.1%

Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: John Healey
Last price: 7.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $25K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: John Healey
Last price: 18%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 18¢
Sell Yes: 11¢
$100 on Yes pays: $556 (5.56x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Pete Hegseth

9.5%

7.1¢ bid, 11.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

11.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $840 (8.40x)

Pete Hegseth

9.5%

Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)

Polymarket

Contract: Pete Hegseth
Last price: 9.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11.9¢
Sell Yes: 7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $840 (8.40x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Miatta Fahnbulleh

8.3%

6.5%

3¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

14%

6¢ bid, 15¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

9.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Miatta Fahnbulleh

8.3%

Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price: 6.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.9¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,010 (10.1x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price: 14%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 15¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $667 (6.67x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.9¢.

Indeterminate

Not listed

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Indeterminate

Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Kalshi

Contract: Indeterminate
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Mike Waltz

2.6¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)

Mike Waltz

Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Mike Waltz
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.3¢
Sell Yes: 2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,370 (13.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

4.8%

2.9¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

6.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

4.8%

Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price: 4.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.7¢
Sell Yes: 2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,493 (14.9x)
Volume: $24K

Trade this on Polymarket

Heidi Alexander

4.7%

4.6%

0.8¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Heidi Alexander

4.7%

Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Heidi Alexander
Last price: 4.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,205 (12.0x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Heidi Alexander
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Show 34 more outcomes

Jonathan Reynolds

4.7%

4.9%

0.5¢ bid, 9.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Jonathan Reynolds

4.7%

Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Jonathan Reynolds
Last price: 4.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,075 (10.8x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Jonathan Reynolds
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Lucy Powell

4.6%

4.5%

1.1¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Lucy Powell

4.6%

Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Lucy Powell
Last price: 4.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.8¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,282 (12.8x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Lucy Powell
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Lisa Nandy

4.3%

3.9%

0.5¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Lisa Nandy

4.3%

Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Lisa Nandy
Last price: 3.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,370 (13.7x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Lisa Nandy
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Alan Campbell

4.2%

6.1%

1.2¢ bid, 11¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Alan Campbell

4.2%

Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alan Campbell
Last price: 6.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 11¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $909 (9.09x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Alan Campbell
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Russell T. Vought

0.5¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

7.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)

Russell T. Vought

Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Russell T. Vought
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,351 (13.5x)
Volume: $832

Trade this on Polymarket

Yvette Cooper

3.7%

4.7%

0.6¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Yvette Cooper

3.7%

Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yvette Cooper
Last price: 4.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,149 (11.5x)
Volume: $4K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yvette Cooper
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Stephen Kinnock

3.5%

4.2%

2¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)

Stephen Kinnock

3.5%

Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Stephen Kinnock
Last price: 4.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6.3¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,587 (15.9x)
Volume: $5K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Stephen Kinnock
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Alex Norris

3.4%

0.8¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

8¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Alex Norris

3.4%

Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alex Norris
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9.1¢
Sell Yes: 0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,099 (11.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Alex Norris
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Angela Eagle

3.3%

3.4%

1.6¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

3¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

5.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)

Angela Eagle

3.3%

Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Angela Eagle
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 5.2¢
Sell Yes: 1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,923 (19.2x)
Volume: $6K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Angela Eagle
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.2¢.

Angela Smith

3.2%

4.4%

0.5¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Angela Smith

3.2%

Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Angela Smith
Last price: 4.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,205 (12.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Angela Smith
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Douglas Alexander

3.2%

4.1%

0.9¢ bid, 7.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

7.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)

Douglas Alexander

3.2%

Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Douglas Alexander
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,389 (13.9x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Douglas Alexander
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Chris Bryant

3.1%

2.9%

0.6¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

5.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)

Chris Bryant

3.1%

Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Chris Bryant
Last price: 2.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 5.1¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,961 (19.6x)
Volume: $14K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Chris Bryant
Last price: 4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Wes Streeting

2.8%

3.5%

1¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Wes Streeting

2.8%

Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Wes Streeting
Last price: 3.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Wes Streeting
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Brooke Rollins

2.8%

0.8¢ bid, 4.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

4.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)

Brooke Rollins

2.8%

Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Brooke Rollins
Last price: 2.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,128 (21.3x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Angela Rayner

2.6%

4.1%

0.3¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

7¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Angela Rayner

2.6%

Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Angela Rayner
Last price: 4.1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,282 (12.8x)
Volume: $789

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Angela Rayner
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Ed Miliband

2.5%

0.6¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Ed Miliband

2.5%

Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ed Miliband
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 5.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,852 (18.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ed Miliband
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Louise Haigh

2.5%

3.3%

0.5¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Louise Haigh

2.5%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Louise Haigh
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Louise Haigh
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Pat McFadden

2.4%

2.5%

0.6¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

4.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)

Pat McFadden

2.4%

Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Pat McFadden
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,273 (22.7x)
Volume: $13K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Pat McFadden
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Shabana Mahmood

2.3%

2.8%

1¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

4.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)

Shabana Mahmood

2.3%

Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Shabana Mahmood
Last price: 2.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.5¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,222 (22.2x)
Volume: $24K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Shabana Mahmood
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Anneliese Midgley

1.9%

0.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

3.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

Anneliese Midgley

1.9%

Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Anneliese Midgley
Last price: 1.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,941 (29.4x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Anneliese Midgley
Last price: 2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Lee Zeldin

1.6%

1.1¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

Lee Zeldin

1.6%

Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: Lee Zeldin
Last price: 1.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.1¢
Sell Yes: 1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,762 (47.6x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Doug Burgum

1.5%

1.3¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

Doug Burgum

1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Doug Burgum
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1.7¢
Sell Yes: 1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,882 (58.8x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

J.D. Vance

1.2%

0.2¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

2.1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

J.D. Vance

1.2%

Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)

Polymarket

Contract: J.D. Vance
Last price: 1.2%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $4,762 (47.6x)
Volume: $836

Trade this on Polymarket

Kelly Loeffler

0.9%

0.5¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)

Kelly Loeffler

0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Kelly Loeffler
Last price: 0.9%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $8,333 (83.3x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Linda McMahon

0.8%

0.6¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Linda McMahon

0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Linda McMahon
Last price: 0.8%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Scott Bessent

0.7%

0.6¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Scott Bessent

0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: Scott Bessent
Last price: 0.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Howard Lutnick

0.7%

0.4¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Howard Lutnick

0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)

Polymarket

Contract: Howard Lutnick
Last price: 0.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $11,111 (111x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Jamieson Greer

0.7%

0.3¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Jamieson Greer

0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Jamieson Greer
Last price: 0.7%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $793

Trade this on Polymarket

Marco Rubio

0.6%

0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

1¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Marco Rubio

0.6%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)

Polymarket

Contract: Marco Rubio
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 1¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $10,000 (100x)
Volume: $798

Trade this on Polymarket

Doug Collins

0.5%

0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Doug Collins

0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)

Polymarket

Contract: Doug Collins
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $16,667 (167x)
Volume: $961

Trade this on Polymarket

John Ratcliffe

0.4%

0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $25,000 (250x)

John Ratcliffe

0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Polymarket

Contract: John Ratcliffe
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $25,000 (250x)
Volume: $825

Trade this on Polymarket

Scott Turner

0.4%

0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Scott Turner

0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Polymarket

Contract: Scott Turner
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $25,000 (250x)
Volume: $576

Trade this on Polymarket

Sean Duffy

0.4%

0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Sean Duffy

0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Polymarket

Contract: Sean Duffy
Last price: 0.4%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $25,000 (250x)
Volume: $974

Trade this on Polymarket

Chris Wright

0.3%

0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

0.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Chris Wright

0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)

Polymarket

Contract: Chris Wright
Last price: 0.3%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 0.4¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $25,000 (250x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy John Healey on Polymarket at 9¢, sell on Kalshi at 11¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: BBC, The Prime Minister's Office

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

None before 2027
Susie Wiles
Bridget Phillipson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list None before 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $138K
Liquidity: $138K
Outcomes listed: 22
Trading closes: Jan 1, 2028

Trade on Polymarket

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $137K
Liquidity: $261K
Outcomes listed: 21
Trading closes: Jan 1, 2027

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $42K
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 23
Trading closes: Jan 1, 2028

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Simulated: orders fill in full at the venue's best price, with no fees. Not real money and not advice. Your results

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?". None before 2027 leads at 37.5%. Next is Susie Wiles at 25.8%. $317K has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all politics markets

What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

Kalshi

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

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