The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ric Grenell 68%

Next is Before Jan 2027 at 64%. The venues differ most on Doug Collins (Polymarket 0.5%, Kalshi 31%), a 31-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ric Grenell
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ric Grenell
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 2027
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 2027
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 2026
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 2026
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
None before 2027
37.6%
Polymarket 37.6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 38.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $262 (2.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2027
Last price
37.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.2¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$262 (2.62x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Susie WilesArb
34.1%
Polymarket 25.6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 37%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 26.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $377 (3.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
25.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.5¢
Sell Yes
24.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$377 (3.77x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$308K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 26.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 37¢ nets 1050 bps before fees.

Amy Gleason
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Gleason
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi
Doug CollinsArb
23.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 31%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Collins
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2940 bps before fees.

Bill Pulte
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Pulte
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete HegsethArb
21.9%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 44s agoKalshi 26%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1360 bps before fees.

John Healey
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Healey
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 51 more outcomes
Kash Patel
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kash Patel
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Homan
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Homan
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brooke RollinsArb
15%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 44s agoKalshi 17%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.4¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$649 (6.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brooke Rollins
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 15.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Mike Huckabee
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Huckabee
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Navarro
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Navarro
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodney Scott
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodney Scott
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Linda McMahonArb
13.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 18%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda McMahon
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 18¢ nets 1710 bps before fees.

Miatta Fahnbulleh
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris WrightArb
12.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 17%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 14¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Howard LutnickArb
12.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 17%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$423K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1610 bps before fees.

Scott TurnerArb
12.2%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 16%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Turner
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

Russell Vought
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Vought
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 2026
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 2026
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brendan Carr
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brendan Carr
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mehmet Oz
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mehmet Oz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Miller
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Miller
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steven Cheung
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Arb
11%
Polymarket 5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$284K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Sean DuffyArb
9.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 44s agoKalshi 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Duffy
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1070 bps before fees.

John RatcliffeArb
9.7%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 12%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$825
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Ratcliffe
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 710 bps before fees.

Doug BurgumArb
9.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 44s agoKalshi 12%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Doug Burgum
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 1030 bps before fees.

Jamieson GreerArb
8.4%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jamieson Greer
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

Kelly LoefflerArb
7.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 44s agoKalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kelly Loeffler
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 880 bps before fees.

Marco RubioArb
7.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 10%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9.3¢ nets 830 bps before fees.

Lee ZeldinArb
6.8%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 44s agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Zeldin
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.8¢ nets 270 bps before fees.

Indeterminate
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indeterminate
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott BessentArb
5.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoKalshi 7.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Bessent
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$99K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5.1¢ nets 430 bps before fees.

Heidi Alexander
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Heidi Alexander
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Nandy
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Nandy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucy Powell
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucy Powell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bridget Phillipson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bridget Phillipson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Bryant
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Bryant
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jonathan Reynolds
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jonathan Reynolds
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russell Vought
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russell T. Vought
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Angela Eagle
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Eagle
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Waltz
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alan Campbell
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alan Campbell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Norris
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Norris
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angela Rayner
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Rayner
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angela Smith
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Smith
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anneliese Midgley
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anneliese Midgley
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Douglas Alexander
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Douglas Alexander
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ed Miliband
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ed Miliband
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louise Haigh
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louise Haigh
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pat McFadden
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pat McFadden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Kinnock
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Kinnock
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Streeting
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Streeting
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yvette Cooper
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yvette Cooper
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
J.D. Vance
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shabana Mahmood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Doug Collins on Polymarket at 0.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (2940 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ric Grenell
  • Before Jan 2027
  • Before Dec 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ric Grenell for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?". Ric Grenell leads at 68%. Next is Before Jan 2027 at 64%. $5.6M has traded across 61 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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