The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$600K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Islam/None in 2026 94.3%

Next is Khamzat Chimaev at 2.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Islam/None in 2026 94.3%Khamzat Chimaev 2.6%Petr Yan 1%Alexander Volkanovski 0.7%Ilia Topuria 0.3%8 others 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Islam/None in 2026
94.3%
Polymarket 95.4%(94.3% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Islam/None in 2026
Last price
95.4%
Fair, margin removed
94.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
93.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khamzat Chimaev
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khamzat Chimaev
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Petr Yan
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Volkanovski
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$567K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ilia Topuria
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandre Pantoja
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandre Pantoja
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dricus Du Plessis
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dricus Du Plessis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Aspinall
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Aspinall
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Pereira
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Pereira
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arman Tsarukyan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Jack Della Maddalena
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Della Maddalena
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joshua Van
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joshua Van
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Magomed Ankalaev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magomed Ankalaev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
Max Holloway
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
Merab Dvalishvili
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Islam/None in 2026
  • Khamzat Chimaev
  • Petr Yan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?". Islam/None in 2026 leads at 94.3%. Next is Khamzat Chimaev at 2.6%. $600K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev. If Islam Makhachev remains #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the Pound-For-Pound rankings within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Islam/No Next #1 in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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