The Prediction Markets

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

Closes
Jan 5, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$124K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lana Nusseibeh 55.5%

Next is Rafael Grossi at 14.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Lana Nusseibeh 55.5%Rafael Grossi 14.6%Rebeca Grynspan 9.1%Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 4.6%Nickolay Mladenov 2.7%10 others 13.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Lana Nusseibeh
55.5%
Kalshi 61%(55.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lana Nusseibeh
Last price
61%
Fair, margin removed
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Grossi
14.6%
Kalshi 16%(14.5% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Grossi
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rebeca Grynspan
9.1%
Kalshi 10%(9.1% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rebeca Grynspan
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett
4.6%
Kalshi 5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nickolay Mladenov
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nickolay Mladenov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amina J. Mohammed
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amina J. Mohammed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gianni Infantino
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gianni Infantino
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Mia Mottley
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mia Mottley
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle Bachelet
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Bachelet
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olara Otunnu
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olara Otunnu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Alicia Bárcena
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alicia Bárcena
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivonne A-Baki
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivonne A-Baki
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Kalshi
Macky Sall
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Macky Sall
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sigrid Kaag
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sigrid Kaag
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The UN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lana Nusseibeh
  • Rafael Grossi
  • Rebeca Grynspan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?". Lana Nusseibeh leads at 55.5%. Next is Rafael Grossi at 14.6%. $124K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 5, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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