The Prediction Markets

Who will be the Republican VP nominee in 2028?

Starts in 661 daysKickoff
Traded
$1.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Marco Rubio 27.4%

Next is Pete Hegseth at 18.1%. The venues differ most on Greg Abbott (Polymarket 5.8%, Kalshi 1%), a 4.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marco RubioArb
27.4%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$315K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Pete Hegseth
18.1%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$287 (2.87x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
6%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$220K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.7¢.

Marjorie Taylor Greene
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Britt
4.8%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Britt
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.8¢.

Donald J. Trump
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald J. Trump Jr.
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivanka Trump
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 29 more outcomes
Erika KirkArb
2.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$984
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$156K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.5¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Donald J. Trump Jr.
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
2.7%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$137K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.8¢.

Ron DeSantis
2.7%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.5¢.

Joe Kent
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joe Kent
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Polymarket
Elise Stefanik
2.3%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elise Stefanik
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.1¢.

Donald J. Trump
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald J. Trump
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$172K
Trade this on Kalshi
Greg AbbottArb
2.2%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.7¢ nets 170 bps before fees.

Kristi Noem
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kristi Noem
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2.1%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$888
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Tucker Carlson
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$886
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron DonaldsArb
2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2.1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Josh Hawley
2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$966
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

Tim Scott
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Scott
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi GabbardArb
1.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.4¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Ted Cruz
1.6%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.4¢.

Nikki Haley
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikki Haley
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.4¢.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.6¢.

Eric Trump
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Trump
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian KempArb
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Eric Schmitt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Schmitt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rand Paul
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Kardashian
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Kardashian
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$545
Trade this on Polymarket
John Thune
0.7%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Thune
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Thune
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.6¢.

Steve Bannon
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Bannon
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$837
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Pence
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Pence
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Gaetz
0.5%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Gaetz
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.4¢.

Tom Brady
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Brady
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$706
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
0.4%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.8¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Greg Abbott on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 2.7¢ (170 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gop.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republican Party
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marco Rubio
  • Pete Hegseth
  • Vivek Ramaswamy

Live prices for Marco Rubio

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the Republican VP nominee in 2028?". Marco Rubio leads at 27.4%. Next is Pete Hegseth at 18.1%. $1.7M has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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