The Prediction Markets

Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 23, 2026?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 4 hours
Traded
$88K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

James Talarico 90.5%

Next is Abdul El-Sayed at 2.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

James Talarico 90.5%Abdul El-Sayed 2.9%Gina Hinojosa 1.9%Angie Nixon 1%Jon Ossoff 1%3 others 2.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
James Talarico
90.5%
Kalshi 95%(90.5% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
95%
Fair, margin removed
90.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdul El-Sayed
2.9%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gina Hinojosa
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gina Hinojosa
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angie Nixon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angie Nixon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mary Peltola
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Peltola
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sherrod Brown
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sherrod Brown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Troy Jackson
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Troy Jackson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ActBlue

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • James Talarico
  • Abdul El-Sayed
  • Gina Hinojosa

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 23, 2026?". James Talarico leads at 90.5%. Next is Abdul El-Sayed at 2.9%. $88K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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