The Prediction Markets

Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$78K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Pablo Picasso 97.5%

Next is Jean-Michel Basquiat at 1.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Pablo Picasso 97.5%Jean-Michel Basquiat 1.4%Andy Warhol 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Pablo Picasso
97.5%
Polymarket 77%(97.5% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pablo Picasso
Last price
77%
Fair, margin removed
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Michel Basquiat
1.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Michel Basquiat
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Warhol
1.1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Warhol
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pablo Picasso
  • Jean-Michel Basquiat
  • Andy Warhol

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?". Pablo Picasso leads at 97.5%. Next is Jean-Michel Basquiat at 1.4%. $78K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the name of the listed artist who is ranked #1 in global fine art auction turnover for the 2026 calendar year according to the Artprice Annual Report covering 2026. If the Artprice Annual Report is not published by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, or does not include a ranked list of top-selling artists by turnover, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve according to the Artprice Annual Report, scheduled for release in early 2027, available at artprice.com or artmarket.com.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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