The Prediction Markets

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Closes
Jan 19, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$2.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No new person 41%

Next is Adam Telle at 39.6%. The venues differ most on Marc Andersen (Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 7.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

12 of 96 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No new person
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
No other person
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Telle
39.6%
Polymarket 37%polled, 17s agoKalshi 41%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 39¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 71¢.

Sean ParnellArb
22.3%
Polymarket 17%polled, 17s agoKalshi 24%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 19¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Dan Driscoll
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Driscoll
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anna Kelly
18%
Kalshi 18%live, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anna Kelly
Price
18%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$207K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marc Andersen
12.6%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 7%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Scott Jennings
12%
Kalshi 12%live, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Jennings
Price
12%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$249K
Trade this on Kalshi
W. Jordan Gillis
9.3%
Polymarket 10%polled, 17s agoKalshi 7%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Joni Ernst
9.1%
Kalshi 9.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joni Ernst
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron DeSantis
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 77 more outcomes
Steve Feinberg
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Feinberg
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Obadal
7.7%
Polymarket 8%polled, 17s agoKalshi 7%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Brent Ingraham
6.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Brian Mast
6.1%
Polymarket 8%polled, 17s agoKalshi 5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Elizabeth Pipko
6%
Kalshi 6%live, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Pipko
Price
6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elbridge Colby
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elbridge Colby
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Young III
4.5%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 17s agoKalshi 6%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Danielle Alvarez
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Alvarez
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harrison Fields
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Fields
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kari Lake
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kari Lake
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Kalshi
Margo Martin
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Margo Martin
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maria Bartiromo
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Bartiromo
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$167K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Cotton
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alina Habba
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alina Habba
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Ferguson
2%
Kalshi 2%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Ferguson
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Beni Rae Harmony
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beni Rae Harmony
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Hagerty
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Hagerty
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Miller
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Derrick Anderson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Derrick Anderson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karoline Leavitt
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karoline Leavitt
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Gallagher
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Gallagher
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Monica Crowley
2%
Kalshi 2%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monica Crowley
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Kalshi
No new person
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
No new person
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$143K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roma Daravi
2%
Kalshi 2%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roma Daravi
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steven Cheung
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trae Stephens
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trae Stephens
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Tricia McLaughlin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tricia McLaughlin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ari Fleischer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ari Fleischer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ben Shapiro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shapiro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benny Johnson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cara Castronuova
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cara Castronuova
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Bongino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Bongino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eric Daugherty
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Daugherty
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Erika Kirk
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Erin Elmore Scavino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erin Elmore Scavino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
George Santos
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
George Santos
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hogan Gidley
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hogan Gidley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Posobiec
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Posobiec
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Paul
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Miller
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Miller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jayme Franklin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jayme Franklin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Sweeney
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Sweeney
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaelan Dorr
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaelan Dorr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kat Timpf
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kat Timpf
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Katie Miller
1%
Kalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Miller
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Katie Pavlich
1%
Kalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Pavlich
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaylee McGhee White
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaylee McGhee White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kayleigh McEnany
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kayleigh McEnany
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kush Desai
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kush Desai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lara Trump
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Laura Loomer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Laura Loomer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$218K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lauren Bis
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lauren Bis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liz Huston
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liz Huston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Logan Paul
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logan Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Levin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Levin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Walsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Walsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Walsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Waltz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matthew Boyle
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Boyle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Cernovich
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Cernovich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalie Harp
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Harp
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki Minaj
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pat Adams
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pat Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Doocy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Doocy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rachel Campos-Duffy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel Campos-Duffy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sage Steele
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sage Steele
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Spicer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Spicer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spencer Pratt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Budowich
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Budowich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Rogers
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Rogers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vanessa Broussard
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vanessa Broussard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley Hunt
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley Hunt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoKalshi 0.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Pompeo
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Pompeo
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keith Kellogg
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keith Kellogg
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Rogers
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Rogers
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$435
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sean Parnell on Polymarket at 19¢, sell on Kalshi at 22¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 27, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 19, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 27, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No new person
  • Adam Telle
  • Sean Parnell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list No new person for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?". No new person leads at 41%. Next is Adam Telle at 39.6%. $2.8M has traded across 87 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 19, 2029.

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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