The Prediction Markets

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

Closes
Jan 27, 2029, in 28 months
Traded
$2.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Adam Telle 36.5%

Next is Sean Parnell at 17%. The venues differ most on Kari Lake (Polymarket 7.9%, Kalshi 3%), a 4.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

13 of 101 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Adam Telle
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Telle
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean Parnell
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean Parnell
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Anna Kelly
16.1%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, just nowKalshi 16%live, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anna Kelly
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anna Kelly
Price
16%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$200K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Marc Andersen
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Andersen
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott JenningsArb
13.4%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, just nowKalshi 14%live, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Jennings
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scott Jennings
Price
14%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$243K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

W. Jordan Gillis
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
W. Jordan Gillis
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Mast
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Mast
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Obadal
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Obadal
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Elizabeth PipkoArb
6.8%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, just nowKalshi 6%live, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elizabeth Pipko
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Pipko
Price
6%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$131K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8.2¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Brent Ingraham
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brent Ingraham
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 60 more outcomes
Kari LakeArb
4.2%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, just nowKalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kari Lake
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kari Lake
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7.6¢ nets 460 bps before fees.

Charles Young III
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Young III
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Maria BartiromoArb
3.4%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, just nowKalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Bartiromo
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maria Bartiromo
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$160K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.2¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Margo MartinArb
3.1%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, just nowKalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margo Martin
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Margo Martin
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Katie MillerArb
3.1%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, just nowKalshi 2%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Miller
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$786
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Miller
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$92K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.7¢ nets 370 bps before fees.

Danielle Alvarez
3%
Kalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Danielle Alvarez
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Beni Rae HarmonyArb
2.7%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beni Rae Harmony
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beni Rae Harmony
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.4¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Alina HabbaArb
2.5%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alina Habba
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alina Habba
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.1¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Steven Cheung
2.1%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steven Cheung
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$119K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tricia McLaughlin
2.1%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tricia McLaughlin
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tricia McLaughlin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Ben Ferguson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Ferguson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
No new person
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
No new person
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$143K
Trade this on Kalshi
Roma Daravi
2%
Kalshi 2%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roma Daravi
Price
2%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kayleigh McEnanyArb
1.9%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kayleigh McEnany
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kayleigh McEnany
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.2¢ nets 20 bps before fees.

Monica Crowley
1.7%
Polymarket 4%polled, just nowKalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Monica Crowley
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Monica Crowley
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Lauren BisArb
1.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lauren Bis
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lauren Bis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.5¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Harrison Fields
1.4%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, just nowKalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harrison Fields
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Fields
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Natalie HarpArb
1.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Harp
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Harp
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.3¢ nets 130 bps before fees.

Taylor RogersArb
1.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Rogers
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Rogers
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Katie PavlichArb
1.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Pavlich
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katie Pavlich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Laura Loomer
1.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, just nowKalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Loomer
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Laura Loomer
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$218K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lara TrumpArb
1.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lara Trump
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Karoline Leavitt
1.2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karoline Leavitt
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Karoline Leavitt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$82K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Liz Huston
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz Huston
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liz Huston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Rachel Campos-Duffy
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rachel Campos-Duffy
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel Campos-Duffy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ben Shapiro
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Shapiro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benny Johnson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Johnson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cara Castronuova
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cara Castronuova
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Bongino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Bongino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eric Daugherty
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Daugherty
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
Erika Kirk
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Erin Elmore Scavino
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erin Elmore Scavino
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
George Santos
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
George Santos
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Posobiec
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Posobiec
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Miller
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Miller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jayme Franklin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jayme Franklin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Sweeney
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Sweeney
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kat Timpf
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kat Timpf
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaylee McGhee White
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaylee McGhee White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Logan Paul
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logan Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Levin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Levin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Walsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Walsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Cernovich
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Cernovich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicki Minaj
1%
Kalshi 1%live, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicki Minaj
Price
1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Doocy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Doocy
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sage Steele
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sage Steele
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Spicer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Spicer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Budowich
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Budowich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tucker Carlson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tulsi Gabbard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vanessa Broussard
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vanessa Broussard
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hogan Gidley
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hogan Gidley
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hogan Gidley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Spencer Pratt
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spencer Pratt
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ari Fleischer
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ari Fleischer
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ari Fleischer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kaelan Dorr
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kaelan Dorr
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kaelan Dorr
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Kush Desai
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kush Desai
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kush Desai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Matthew Boyle
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matthew Boyle
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Boyle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Pat Adams
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pat Adams
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pat Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Jake Paul
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jake Paul
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Paul
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Kari Lake on Kalshi at 3¢, sell on Polymarket at 7.6¢ (460 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 27, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The White House, The New York Times
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 27, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adam Telle
  • Sean Parnell
  • Anna Kelly

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Adam Telle for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?". Adam Telle leads at 36.5%. Next is Sean Parnell at 17%. $2.8M has traded across 70 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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